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皇家或破產

簡介

本頁的目的是回答這樣的問題:「如果我有 2,000 美元的資金,那麼在破產之前我拿到同花大順的機率是多少?」本頁中的資訊不會增加玩家的勝算,但如果玩家的目標是拿到同花大順或破產,這些資訊可能有助於玩家規劃預算。

除了「皇家或爆牌」表格外,我們還將分析在雙2點百搭牌遊戲中擊中四張2點或更好的牌所需的資金。我們也提供一張表格,用於計算以25點或更高牌為目標的爆牌機率(在非百搭牌遊戲中,四張同點牌或更好的牌是四張同點牌,在2點百搭牌遊戲中,皇家或更好的牌是百搭)。

所有牌桌的投注金額均以全額投注計算。例如,在1美元的遊戲中,投注金額為100美元,則投注金額為500美元,因為玩家每次應該投注5個硬幣,在本例中為5美元。

遊戲

以下是本次分析涵蓋的遊戲清單。

遊戲概要

縮寫姓名完整賠償表皇家機率返回
9-6 DDB雙倍雙倍獎金1,1,3,4,6,9,50,80,160,160,400,50,800 40799分之1 98.98%
9-6 工作傑克或更好1,2,3,4,6,9,25,50,800 40391分之1 99.54%
首腦計畫工作隊全額支付Deuces Wild 1,2,2,3,5,9,15,25,200,800 45282分之1 100.76%
非小細胞肺癌不那麼醜的鴨子( Deuces Wild ) 1,2,3,4,4,10,16,25,200,800 43456分之1 99.73%
10-7 DB雙倍獎金1,1,3,5,7,10,50,80,160,50,800 48048分之1 100.17%
8-5 BP紅利撲克1,2,3,4,5,8,25,40,80,50,800 40233分之1 99.17%
FPJ全額支付Joker Wild 1(國王),1,2,3,5,7,20,50,100,200,800 41214分之1 100.65%
FPA8全額支付Aces 和 Eights 1,2,3,4,5,8,25,50,80,50,800 40233分之1 99.78%

皇家或破產



在我看來,娛樂性賭徒通常週末的目標是贏得一次皇家大注,一旦贏了,他們就會立即停止遊戲。下表旨在解答不同資金規模和常見遊戲的贏錢機率問題。

例如,假設一位玩家擁有 2,000 美元的資金,正在玩 9-6 J 或更好牌,賠率為 25 美分。視訊撲克玩家應該始終下注的全額賭注是五張 25 美分硬幣,即 1.25 美元。這樣,他的資金為 2,000 美元/1.25 美元 = 1,600 次下注。表格顯示,該玩家在爆牌前有 78.03% 的機率擊中皇家牌。

皇家或破產

資金9-6 DDB 9-6 工作首腦計畫工作隊非小細胞肺癌10-7 DB 8-5 BP FPJ FPA8
100 6.26% 9.05% 12.08% 8.52% 9.10% 7.89% 11.72% 9.51%
200 12.12% 17.27% 22.73% 16.32% 17.34% 15.16% 22.13% 18.11%
300 17.62% 24.78% 32.08% 23.46% 24.86% 21.85% 31.29% 25.88%
400 22.78% 31.59% 40.25% 29.96% 31.70% 28.04% 39.35% 32.91%
500 27.62% 37.77% 47.50% 35.93% 37.93% 33.69% 46.51% 39.29%
600 32.15% 43.37% 53.84% 41.36% 43.56% 38.92% 52.82% 45.03%
700 36.40% 48.48% 59.41% 46.38% 48.69% 43.74% 58.39% 50.26%
800 40.38% 53.12% 64.34% 50.95% 53.38% 48.17% 63.27% 54.96%
900 44.10% 57.34% 68.64% 55.15% 57.61% 52.26% 67.57% 59.24%
1000 47.61% 61.21% 72.42% 58.99% 61.49% 56.03% 71.38% 63.12%
1100 50.89% 64.73% 75.76% 62.50% 65.00% 59.51% 74.72% 66.63%
1200 53.96% 67.91% 78.69% 65.67% 68.19% 62.70% 77.70% 69.79%
1300 56.84% 70.81% 81.25% 68.59% 71.08% 65.66% 80.34% 72.67%
1400 59.55% 73.46% 83.51% 71.26% 73.73% 68.36% 82.64% 75.24%
1500 62.09% 75.86% 85.49% 73.69% 76.13% 70.89% 84.70% 77.59%
1600 64.46% 78.03% 87.23% 75.90% 78.29% 73.20% 86.50% 79.74%
1700 66.69% 80.01% 88.74% 77.97% 80.27% 75.31% 88.08% 81.68%
1800 68.77% 81.81% 90.10% 79.83% 82.05% 77.23% 89.48% 83.42%
1900 70.72% 83.46% 91.29% 81.54% 83.67% 79.04% 90.71% 84.99%
2000 72.56% 84.95% 92.33% 83.11% 85.15% 80.68% 91.79% 86.43%
2100 74.28% 86.30% 93.26% 84.52% 86.49% 82.23% 92.77% 87.72%
2200 75.88% 87.54% 94.08% 85.85% 87.70% 83.62% 93.61% 88.89%
2300 77.39% 88.67% 94.79% 87.06% 88.81% 84.91% 94.37% 89.94%
2400 78.80% 89.69% 95.42% 88.17% 89.84% 86.11% 95.03% 90.89%
2500 80.13% 90.63% 95.97% 89.17% 90.76% 87.21% 95.61% 91.75%
2600 81.38% 91.49% 96.47% 90.10% 91.59% 88.22% 96.13% 92.54%
2700 82.54% 92.26% 96.90% 90.95% 92.35% 89.15% 96.59% 93.25%
2800 83.63% 92.96% 97.26% 91.71% 93.04% 90.00% 96.99% 93.88%
2900 84.65% 93.59% 97.59% 92.41% 93.67% 90.78% 97.34% 94.45%
3000 85.61% 94.16% 97.88% 93.06% 94.25% 91.51% 97.66% 94.98%
3100 86.51% 94.68% 98.13% 93.65% 94.78% 92.18% 97.93% 95.46%
3200 87.36% 95.16% 98.35% 94.20% 95.26% 92.80% 98.17% 95.90%
3300 88.15% 95.60% 98.55% 94.70% 95.69% 93.37% 98.39% 96.29%
3400 88.89% 96.00% 98.73% 95.15% 96.09% 93.89% 98.59% 96.65%
3500 89.58% 96.36% 98.88% 95.57% 96.43% 94.38% 98.75% 96.96%
3600 90.23% 96.69% 99.02% 95.95% 96.76% 94.83% 98.90% 97.25%
3700 90.84% 96.99% 99.14% 96.30% 97.05% 95.24% 99.03% 97.51%
3800 91.42% 97.26% 99.25% 96.61% 97.32% 95.61% 99.15% 97.75%
3900 91.96% 97.51% 99.34% 96.90% 97.57% 95.96% 99.25% 97.96%
4000 92.46% 97.73% 99.42% 97.17% 97.79% 96.28% 99.34% 98.15%
5000 96.04% 99.13% 99.84% 98.85% 99.14% 98.37% 99.81% 99.32%
6000 97.92% 99.65% 99.96% 99.53% 99.67% 99.28% 99.95% 99.75%
7000 98.92% 99.86% 99.99% 99.81% 99.88% 99.68% 99.99% 99.91%
8000 99.43% 99.94% 100.00% 99.92% 99.95% 99.86% 100.00% 99.97%
9000 99.70% 99.98% 100.00% 99.97% 99.98% 99.94% 100.00% 99.99%
10000 99.85% 99.99% 100.00% 99.99% 99.99% 99.97% 100.00% 100.00%
11000 99.92% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99% 100.00% 99.99% 100.00% 100.00%
12000 99.96% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
13000 99.98% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
14000 99.99% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
15000 99.99% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

以下是每局遊戲中獲得同花大順所需的平均資金。

  • 9-6 雙倍獎金:1547.76
  • 9-6 J或更好:1056.41
  • 全額支付 Deuces Wild:777.43
  • 不那麼醜的鴨子 Deuces Wild:1123.74
  • 10-7 雙倍獎金:1049.43
  • 8-5獎金撲克:1216.61
  • 全額支付 Joker Wild:799.79
  • 8-5 A和8:1002.47

贏200或破產

下表顯示在兩張 Deuces Wild 遊戲中,獲得四張 2 點或更好的牌(賠率為 1 比 200)的機率。此外,在全額賠付的 Joker Wild(K 或更好牌)遊戲中,獲得五張同點或更好的牌(賠率為 200)的機率也相同。

贏 200 以上或破產

資金首腦計畫工作隊非小細胞肺癌FPJ
二十五9.33% 7.83% 6.90%
50 17.78% 15.06% 13.30%
75 25.45% 21.72% 19.26%
100 32.39% 27.84% 24.82%
125 38.70% 33.50% 29.98%
150 44.43% 38.71% 34.80%
175 49.61% 43.51% 39.28%
200 54.31% 47.95% 43.45%
225 58.55% 52.03% 47.33%
250 62.42% 55.79% 50.95%
275 65.93% 59.25% 54.33%
300 69.11% 62.45% 57.46%
325 71.99% 65.39% 60.38%
350 74.60% 68.11% 63.11%
375 76.97% 70.61% 65.64%
400 79.12% 72.91% 68.00%
425 81.06% 75.04% 70.20%
450 82.83% 77.00% 72.24%
475 84.43% 78.80% 74.16%
500 85.88% 80.46% 75.93%
600 90.45% 85.90% 81.89%
700 93.55% 89.83% 86.39%
800 95.64% 92.66% 89.76%
900 97.06% 94.71% 92.30%
1000 98.01% 96.18% 94.22%
1100 98.65% 97.25% 95.66%
1200 99.09% 98.01% 96.73%
1300 99.38% 98.57% 97.55%
1400 99.58% 98.96% 98.15%
1500 99.72% 99.25% 98.61%
1600 99.81% 99.46% 98.96%
1700 99.87% 99.61% 99.22%
1800 99.91% 99.72% 99.41%
1900 99.94% 99.80% 99.56%
2000 99.96% 99.85% 99.67%
2100 99.97% 99.89% 99.75%
2200 99.98% 99.92% 99.81%
2300 99.99% 99.94% 99.86%
2400 99.99% 99.96% 99.89%
2500 99.99% 99.97% 99.92%
2600 100.00% 99.98% 99.94%
2700 100.00% 99.98% 99.96%
2800 100.00% 99.99% 99.97%
2900 100.00% 99.99% 99.98%
3000 100.00% 99.99% 99.98%

以下是每場比賽贏得 200 或更多勝利所需的平均資金。

  • 全額支付 Deuces Wild:255.90
  • 不那麼醜的鴨子 Deuces Wild:306.79
  • 全額支付 Joker Wild:351.40

贏 25 或以上或爆牌



下表顯示了不同資金規模下,贏得25或以上賠率的機率。我選擇25是因為在沒有百搭牌的遊戲中,四條的最低賠率通常是25。在雙2百搭牌遊戲中,皇家百搭牌的賠率也很常見。

例如,假設一位9-6 J或Better的玩家將一張100美元的鈔票投入一台25美分的機器。他在爆牌前贏得25個或更多投注單位的機率是多少? 100美元可以在這台機器上購買100/1.25 = 80個全額投注。表格顯示,在100美元用完之前,贏得四張或更多同花順的機率為83.86%。

贏 25 或以上或爆牌

資金9-6 DDB 9-6 工作首腦計畫工作隊非小細胞肺癌10-7 DB 8-5 BP FPA8
10 10.36% 20.39% 16.00% 15.55% 12.25% 17.91% 17.92%
20 19.66% 36.61% 29.45% 28.69% 23.00% 32.61% 32.63%
三十27.99% 49.53% 40.74% 39.77% 32.44% 44.69% 44.70%
40 35.46% 59.82% 50.22% 49.14% 40.72% 54.59% 54.60%
50 42.15% 68.01% 58.18% 57.06% 47.99% 62.73% 62.73%
60 48.15% 74.53% 64.87% 63.73% 54.36% 69.41% 69.41%
70 53.53% 79.72% 70.50% 69.37% 59.96% 74.88% 74.89%
80 58.34% 83.86% 75.22% 74.14% 64.87% 79.38% 79.39%
90 62.67% 87.15% 79.18% 78.16% 69.18% 83.07% 83.08%
100 66.54% 89.77% 82.51% 81.55% 72.95% 86.11% 86.11%
110 70.01% 91.85% 85.31% 84.42% 76.26% 88.59% 88.60%
120 73.12% 93.51% 87.66% 86.84% 79.18% 90.64% 90.64%
130 75.90% 94.83% 89.63% 88.89% 81.73% 92.31% 92.32%
140 78.40% 95.89% 91.29% 90.62% 83.97% 93.69% 93.69%
150 80.64% 96.73% 92.69% 92.08% 85.93% 94.82% 94.82%
160 82.65% 97.39% 93.86% 93.31% 87.65% 95.74% 95.75%
170 84.45% 97.93% 94.84% 94.35% 89.17% 96.51% 96.51%
180 86.06% 98.35% 95.66% 95.23% 90.50% 97.13% 97.14%
190 87.50% 98.69% 96.36% 95.97% 91.66% 97.65% 97.65%
200 88.80% 98.95% 96.94% 96.59% 92.68% 98.07% 98.07%
250 93.52% 99.67% 98.72% 98.54% 96.19% 99.28% 99.28%
300 96.25% 99.89% 99.47% 99.37% 98.02% 99.73% 99.73%
350 97.83% 99.97% 99.78% 99.73% 98.97% 99.90% 99.90%
400 98.74% 99.99% 99.91% 99.88% 99.46% 99.96% 99.96%
450 99.27% 100.00% 99.96% 99.95% 99.72% 99.99% 99.99%
500 99.58% 100.00% 99.98% 99.98% 99.86% 99.99% 99.99%

以下是每場比賽贏得 25 或更多勝利所需的平均資金。

  • 9-6 雙倍獎金:91.86
  • 9-6 J或更好:44.37
  • 全額支付 Deuces Wild:57.85
  • 不那麼醜的鴨子 Deuces Wild:59.66
  • 10-7 雙倍獎勵:76.99
  • 8-5 紅利撲克:51.17
  • 8-5 A和8:51.16

方法論

本頁面使用隨機模擬。像往常一樣,假設玩家採取最佳策略。

外部連結

關於這個主題的討論可以在我在 Wizard of Vegas 論壇的“贏得皇家獎金要求”主題下找到。