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Matching Dragon相符⻯牌

簡介

「Matching Dragon相符⻯牌」是在澳⾨某處的⼀種百家樂的side bet邊 注。我聽說在Lisboa葡京酒店找得到, 但我的訊息來源並不是很確定。

它實際上是13種邊注, 每個牌⾯點數各算為⼀種。押注的玩家根據下⼀⼿ 牌出現的牌⾯點數、若是與所押注的點數符合、依照符合的牌⾯張數來決 定賠率。⾄於下⼀⼿牌會發出多少張都可以、(閒家+莊家)從四張到六張 都算數。以下為⽀付列表。所有的贏注是以「to one⽐⼀」為基準。

Matching Dragon相符⻯牌 ⽀付列表

相符牌張數 ⽀付列表1 ⽀付列表2
6 100 100
5 60 60
4 40 30
3 20 15
2 3 2
1 1 1
0 輸 輸

 

 

範例: 考量以下的牌⾯:

閒家: Q22
莊家: KQ2

押注在2點因為出現三張2點、⽀付20⽐1的賠率, 押注Q牌因為出現兩張 Queens、⽀付3⽐1的賠率, 押注K牌因為出現⼀張King、⽀付1⽐1的賠率, 其他的10種押注因為沒出牌、所以算輸。

 

下個列表顯⽰每⼀種牌⾯點數出現的張數、所對應的排列組合總數, 基於 ⼋副牌組的遊戲。

 

 

Matching Dragon相符⻯牌 排列組合總數Expand

牌⾯點數 出現的張數
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
A 3,372,235,347,405,820 1,376,864,854,298,620 227,334,747,041,792 20,748,232,028,160 1,174,231,511,040 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
2 3,374,205,845,711,870 1,372,886,682,968,060 229,384,762,118,144 20,753,336,463,360 1,130,651,443,200 36,344,340,480 652,458,240
3 3,375,668,306,236,410 1,368,547,890,921,470 233,294,440,835,072 20,047,474,974,720 840,162,535,680 0 0
4 3,376,297,590,838,270 1,365,203,603,582,970 237,624,138,319,872 18,841,460,736,000 431,482,026,240 0 0
5 3,369,867,624,655,870 1,381,466,839,506,940 225,192,490,123,264 20,626,123,653,120 1,201,241,210,880 43,303,895,040 652,458,240
6 3,360,312,058,915,840 1,398,234,533,609,470 219,826,491,219,968 18,905,100,472,320 1,079,228,067,840 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
7 3,360,436,360,129,530 1,396,785,482,645,500 222,199,903,375,360 17,958,953,410,560 986,765,414,400 30,158,069,760 652,458,240
8 3,341,662,250,324,990 1,429,319,839,928,320 212,157,913,151,488 14,755,316,551,680 502,955,546,880 0 0
9 3,345,838,246,777,850 1,419,219,581,763,580 219,618,524,149,760 13,491,384,115,200 230,538,696,960 0 0
10 3,372,222,296,173,560 1,376,888,919,302,140 227,325,253,173,248 20,746,767,360,000 1,174,176,276,480 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
J 3,372,222,296,173,560 1,376,888,919,302,140 227,325,253,173,248 20,746,767,360,000 1,174,176,276,480 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
Q 3,372,222,296,173,560 1,376,888,919,302,140 227,325,253,173,248 20,746,767,360,000 1,174,176,276,480 40,210,759,680 652,458,240
K 3,372,222,296,173,560 1,376,888,919,302,140 227,325,253,173,248 20,746,767,360,000 1,174,176,276,480 40,210,759,680 652,458,240

 

下個列表顯⽰每⼀種牌⾯點數出現的張數、所對應的機率, 基於⼋副牌組 的遊戲。

 

Matching Dragon相符⻯牌 機率

牌⾯點數 出現的張數
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
A 0.67466319 0.27546121 0.04548152 0.00415098 0.00023492 0.00000804 0.00000013
2 0.67505742 0.27466532 0.04589165 0.00415200 0.00022620 0.00000727 0.00000013
3 0.67535001 0.27379729 0.04667384 0.00401078 0.00016809 0.00000000 0.00000000
4 0.67547590 0.27312822 0.04754006 0.00376950 0.00008632 0.00000000 0.00000000
5 0.67418950 0.27638191 0.04505293 0.00412655 0.00024033 0.00000866 0.00000013
6 0.67227777 0.27973652 0.04397939 0.00378223 0.00021591 0.00000804 0.00000013
7 0.67230264 0.27944662 0.04445422 0.00359294 0.00019742 0.00000603 0.00000013
8 0.66854662 0.28595557 0.04244518 0.00295201 0.00010062 0.00000000 0.00000000
9 0.66938208 0.28393487 0.04393778 0.00269914 0.00004612 0.00000000 0.00000000
10 0.67466058 0.27546603 0.04547962 0.00415068 0.00023491 0.00000804 0.00000013
J 0.67466058 0.27546603 0.04547962 0.00415068 0.00023491 0.00000804 0.00000013
Q 0.67466058 0.27546603 0.04547962 0.00415068 0.00023491 0.00000804 0.00000013
K 0.67466058 0.27546603 0.04547962 0.00415068 0.00023491 0.00000804 0.00000013

 

以下兩個列表顯⽰每⼀種牌⾯點數出現的張數、基於⽀付列表1和2的相應 回報率。右邊的欄位顯⽰13種押注每⼀種牌⾯的expected return期望回報 率。

 

Matching Dragon相符⻯牌 回報率列表 — ⽀付列表1

牌⾯點數 出現的張數
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 總計
A -0.674663 0.275461 0.136445 0.083020 0.009397 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169845
2 -0.675057 0.274665 0.137675 0.083040 0.009048 0.000436 0.000013 -0.170180
3 -0.675350 0.273797 0.140022 0.080216 0.006723 0.000000 0.000000 -0.174592
4 -0.675476 0.273128 0.142620 0.075390 0.003453 0.000000 0.000000 -0.180885
5 -0.674189 0.276382 0.135159 0.082531 0.009613 0.000520 0.000013 -0.169972
6 -0.672278 0.279737 0.131938 0.075645 0.008637 0.000483 0.000013 -0.175826
7 -0.672303 0.279447 0.133363 0.071859 0.007897 0.000362 0.000013 -0.179363
8 -0.668547 0.285956 0.127336 0.059040 0.004025 0.000000 0.000000 -0.192190
9 -0.669382 0.283935 0.131813 0.053983 0.001845 0.000000 0.000000 -0.197806
10 -0.674661 0.275466 0.136439 0.083014 0.009396 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169850
11 -0.674661 0.275466 0.136439 0.083014 0.009396 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169850
12 -0.674661 0.275466 0.136439 0.083014 0.009396 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169850
13 -0.674661 0.275466 0.136439 0.083014 0.009396 0.000483 0.000013 -0.169850

 

 

Matching Dragon相符⻯牌 回報率列表 — ⽀付列表2

牌⾯點數 出現的張數
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 總計
A -0.674663 0.275461 0.090963 0.062265 0.007048 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238431
2 -0.675057 0.274665 0.091783 0.062280 0.006786 0.000436 0.000013 -0.239093
3 -0.675350 0.273797 0.093348 0.060162 0.005043 0.000000 0.000000 -0.243001
4 -0.675476 0.273128 0.095080 0.056542 0.002590 0.000000 0.000000 -0.248135
5 -0.674189 0.276382 0.090106 0.061898 0.007210 0.000520 0.000013 -0.238061
6 -0.672278 0.279737 0.087959 0.056733 0.006477 0.000483 0.000013 -0.240876
7 -0.672303 0.279447 0.088908 0.053894 0.005922 0.000362 0.000013 -0.243756
8 -0.668547 0.285956 0.084890 0.044280 0.003019 0.000000 0.000000 -0.250402
9 -0.669382 0.283935 0.087876 0.040487 0.001384 0.000000 0.000000 -0.255701
10 -0.674661 0.275466 0.090959 0.062260 0.007047 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238432
11 -0.674661 0.275466 0.090959 0.062260 0.007047 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238432
12 -0.674661 0.275466 0.090959 0.062260 0.007047 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238432
13 -0.674661 0.275466 0.090959 0.062260 0.007047 0.000483 0.000013 -0.238432

 

不難發現這種押注是⾼度可計算的, 尤其是如果允許利⽤計分板和筆來記 錄的狀況。然⽽, 這還得克服⾼值的賭場優勢, 特別是⽀付列表2的賠率, 不 過這倒是要看你⾃⼰決定。

內部連結

 

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撰寫者: Michael Shackleford