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投注NBA

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投注NBA

介紹

本頁介紹籃球博彩，特別是NBA。本頁面的數據是根據2013年至2017年賽季的6,567場歷史比賽。假設讀者了解基本的體育博彩術語。如果不了解，請先造訪我的體育博彩頁面。

押注差價

平均而言，主隊勝率為58.4%，比客隊多得2.70分。然而，如果投注讓分盤，我認為客隊的價值更高，如下表所示。表格是基於投注11勝10負的投注。回報欄顯示的是預期贏錢（或負數情況下的損失）佔投注金額的百分比。如你所見，投注主隊的莊家優勢為6.22%，而客隊的莊家優勢僅為2.70%。

客隊或主隊對上讓分盤

邊勝利可能性返回
路3,280 0.499467 -0.026981
家3,159 0.481042 -0.062157
推128 0.019491
全部的6,567 1.000000 -0.044569

下表顯示了投注弱隊和強隊的讓分盤結果。這不包括讓分盤為零的61場比賽。我原本預計弱隊會表現得更好，但結果證明我錯了——他們的表現只是略勝一籌。如你所見，弱隊獲勝的機率僅比強隊高0.4%。回報顯示的是預期玩家贏（負數表示輸）與投注金額的比率，假設玩家投注11贏10。

弱勢方或優勢方

邊勝利可能性返回
最喜歡的3,176 0.488165 -0.048375
失敗者3,202 0.492161 -0.040746
推128 0.019674
全部的6,506 1.000000 -0.044560

Compare Online NBA Odds

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Featured Insight 亞特蘭大老鷹隊將與多倫多猛龍隊進行一場有趣的比賽。猛龍隊擁有強大的防守陣容，但老鷹隊由特雷·楊領導的進攻可能會很有爆發力。注意失誤；亞特蘭大的快速節奏可能會利用多倫多的錯誤。這場比賽可能取決於三分球投射，兩隊都有出色的射手。預計將有一場緊張的比賽，小的差距將決定勝負。
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Featured Insight 孟菲斯灰熊隊和新奧爾良鵜鶘隊的比賽將異常激烈。灰熊隊依靠其防守能力和年輕球星賈·莫蘭特。與此同時，鵜鶘隊則希望利用錫安·威廉姆森的進攻能力。關鍵因素包括灰熊的外圍防守和鵜鶘的得分深度。考慮到最近的表現，預計這將是一場激烈的比賽，可能會爆出冷門。
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Featured Insight 對於密爾沃基雄鹿隊與華盛頓奇才隊的比賽，考慮雄鹿隊出色的主場表現和他們的進攻深度。字母哥是值得關注的關鍵球員，而奇才隊可能在沒有他們通常的防守能力時遇到麻煩。雄鹿隊是熱門，但要注意布拉德利·比爾，因為他可以憑藉得分能力扭轉比賽局勢。
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Featured Insight 芝加哥公牛隊在進攻方面表現強勁，關鍵球員如扎克·拉文領銜。然而，底特律活塞隊專注於重建，防守上有些吃力。公牛隊可能會由於其經驗豐富的陣容和近期更好的狀態佔據優勢。特別注意公牛隊得分後衛位置上的個人表現。
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Featured Insight 猶他爵士隊與洛杉磯快船隊的比賽將會是一場激動人心的對決。爵士隊以其強大的防守和動態得分而聞名，而快船隊擁有深厚的球員陣容和快速的進攻。關鍵球員包括爵士隊的多諾萬·米切爾和快船隊的科懷·倫納德。預計爵士隊會利用快船隊外線防守的弱點。投注洞察指示這將會是一場緊湊的比賽，考慮到兩隊的天份，球員道具投注可能有潛在的價值。
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Featured Insight 達拉斯獨行俠在盧卡·東契奇的帶領下展現了強勁的狀態，使他們在對陣聖安東尼奧馬刺時成為熱門。馬刺隊處於重建模式，但年輕球員可能帶來驚喜。關鍵因素包括獨行俠的主場優勢和馬刺對東契奇的防守。注意兩隊的傷病報告。預計會是一場高分比賽，獨行俠很可能處於主導地位。
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Featured Insight 波特蘭拓荒者隊對陣明尼蘇達木狼隊。由達米安·利拉德領銜的波特蘭強勢進攻，將挑戰魯迪·戈伯爾為核心的明尼蘇達堅固防守。波特蘭最近在客場的掙扎可能給予木狼主場優勢。然而，如果利拉德能找到狀態，波特蘭可能會超越明尼蘇達。面對木狼強大的籃板團隊，拓荒者需要高效投籃才能確保勝利。
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Featured Insight 鳳凰城太陽隊與薩克拉門托國王隊的對決中，德文·布克與迪亞隆·福克斯的較量尤為關鍵。太陽隊的強大防守可能會對國王隊的進攻造成挑戰，而國王隊的節奏會考驗太陽隊。請關注可能產生影響的教練策略。投注建議：憑藉主場優勢，太陽隊可能會小勝。
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Featured Insight 印第安納步行者隊將在備受期待的比賽中對陣俄克拉荷馬城雷霆隊。步行者隊在快節奏比賽中表現出色，但他們的防守可能不穩定。俄克拉荷馬城以其年輕活力和積極進攻而聞名。關鍵球員包括雷霆隊的謝伊·吉爾傑斯-亞歷山大和步行者隊的泰瑞斯·哈里伯頓。考慮投注一場高得分的比賽，因為兩隊都傾向於進攻策略。注意查看可能影響球隊表現的傷病報告。
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Featured Insight 底特律活塞最近表現掙扎，但他們希望利用克利夫蘭騎士隊不穩定的防守。騎士隊由活力四射的後場球員帶領，可能會利用活塞隊薄弱的外圍防守。關注底特律的卡德·康寧漢和克利夫蘭的多諾萬·米切爾等關鍵球員的表現。投注洞察顯示比賽將會很接近，但由於克利夫蘭近期表現更佳，他們略佔優勢。
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Fri Oct 31st 07pm Philadelphia 76ers Boston Celtics
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Featured Insight 費城76人隊對陣波士頓凱爾特人隊面臨嚴峻挑戰。費城的喬爾·恩比德將在這場比賽中起關鍵作用，但波士頓的強大防守和深度可能會決定比賽。雖然76人在客場表現掙扎，但凱爾特人在主場表現良好。如果凱爾特人的外圍投籃狀態良好，他們可能佔據上風。考慮到近期表現，凱爾特人可能會以微弱優勢獲勝。
Fri Oct 31st 09pm Memphis Grizzlies Los Angeles Lakers
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Featured Insight 孟菲斯灰熊對洛杉磯湖人的比賽預計會非常激動人心。在莫蘭特的帶領下，灰熊希望擊敗詹姆士和湖人。兩隊均展示了強大的進攻能力，但湖人的經驗可能使他們略勝一籌。投注者應考慮湖人的主場優勢。關鍵因素包括球員的健康狀況和近期表現。
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Featured Insight 聖安東尼奧馬刺隊與休士頓火箭隊將在一場激動人心的比賽中交鋒。馬刺隊以其紀律嚴明的比賽風格聞名，他們的強大防守可能會對火箭隊由年輕才俊領銜的激進進攻構成挑戰。對於投注者來說，需要密切關注分差，馬刺隊通常在緊張的比賽中覆蓋它。值得關注的關鍵球員有馬刺隊的迪瓊泰·穆雷，他在場上兩端都有貢獻，以及火箭隊的杰倫·格林，以其爆發性的得分能力著稱。
Fri Nov 7th 10pm Denver Nuggets Golden State Warriors
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Featured Insight 丹佛掘金隊將在一場巨人對決中迎戰金州勇士隊。掘金隊的約基奇在組織比賽中至關重要，而勇士隊依靠庫里的投籃能力。丹佛的防守將受到金州快速節奏的考驗。關注掘金替補席在與勇士陣容深度的對抗中的影響。比賽的關鍵在於三分球和失誤。
Fri Nov 14th 07pm New York Knicks Miami Heat
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Featured Insight 尼克斯和熱火的比賽充滿期待。尼克斯依賴強力防守和朱利葉斯·蘭德爾的得分，而熱火則倚賴吉米·巴特勒的領導。關鍵球員如RJ巴雷特及巴姆·阿德巴約可能關鍵。兩支球隊表現不穩定，令賽事充滿變數。請考慮替補表現及最近面對面賽果影響。主場優勢及教練策略可能起關鍵作用。投注建議：留意球員傷病及表現趨勢再下注。
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Fri Nov 21st 07pm Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers
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Featured Insight 克利夫蘭騎士隊與印第安納溜馬隊在一場引人入勝的NBA比賽中對峙。騎士隊具備強大防守，而溜馬隊仰賴快速進攻。關鍵球員包括騎士隊的多諾萬·米契爾和溜馬隊的泰瑞斯·哈利伯頓。近期表現顯示雙方競爭激烈。賠率略微偏向騎士隊，基於其主場優勢。投注時需考慮球員表現及球隊策略。
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Featured Insight 休士頓火箭隊將在對陣丹佛掘金隊時面臨挑戰。掘金隊在尼古拉·約基奇的帶領下，擁有一支強大的陣容，並在主場擁有絕對優勢。火箭隊需限制約基奇的組織能力和在內線的統治力。注意火箭的年輕潛力股，如杰倫·格林，他們可能對比賽產生影響。投注建議偏向掘金，考慮到他們穩定的表現和深厚的陣容。比賽節奏和投籃命中率將對比分產生重大影響。
Tue Nov 25th 08pm Philadelphia 76ers Orlando Magic
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Featured Insight 費城76人隊是強勁的競爭者，進攻穩健，但常在防守上遇到困難。奧蘭多魔術隊擁有年輕的天才球員，能以快速的打法出其不意地擊敗對手。投注76人隊可能較為安全，但應考慮魔術隊爆冷的潛力。注意球員的受傷情況，因為這會改變比賽動態。
Tue Nov 25th 11pm Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Clippers
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Featured Insight 洛杉磯湖人與洛杉磯快船有著強烈的競爭關係。湖人通常依賴於勒布朗·詹姆斯的控球和安東尼·戴維斯的內線存在。快船有卡瓦伊·倫納德和保羅·喬治，注重平衡進攻。投注前請檢查最近的傷病報告和主場優勢。歷史上，這些球隊之間的比賽都很接近。請考慮球隊的狀態，對陣表現和投注路線的變動。
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Featured Insight 波士頓凱爾特人在對陣底特律活塞的比賽中被看好，因其強大的陣容和近期表現。凱爾特人擁有更好的投籃準確性和防守效率。然而，活塞憑藉其年輕天賦可能會帶來驚喜。投注者應在下注前考慮點差和傷病報告。
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Featured Insight 金州勇士隊憑藉斯蒂芬·庫里的得分能力，對休斯頓火箭隊擁有優勢。勇士隊近期狀態和主場優勢表明可能會贏。然而，火箭隊的年輕陣容有可能憑藉他們的侵略性打法帶來驚喜。考慮傷病更新以及勇士隊對火箭隊快速後衛的外線防守是關鍵。
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Featured Insight 密爾瓦基公鹿隊在超級明星揚尼斯·安戴托昆波的帶領下，是一支強大的力量，尤其是在主場。紐約尼克斯隊雖然在進步，但對陣頂級球隊時表現艱難。投注者應考慮到公鹿隊的強勁戰績和主場優勢。尼克斯需在防守上改進以有效競爭。關注蘭德爾和布倫森等球員的關鍵表現。注意任何可能影響陣容動態的傷病。總體而言，公鹿是熱門球隊，但意外可能發生，下注需謹慎。
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Featured Insight 洛杉磯湖人隊與達拉斯小牛隊之間的比賽承諾激烈競爭。請關注勒布朗·詹姆斯與盧卡·東契奇之間的超級明星對決，這可能是比賽的亮點。湖人隊對達拉斯三分投射的防守將是關鍵。主場優勢可能偏向達拉斯，但湖人在關鍵時刻的經驗可能會是決定性的。
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Featured Insight 紐約尼克斯與克里夫蘭騎士的比賽承諾會有精彩的防守表現。尼克斯依賴於蘭德爾的得分及防守能力，而騎士則以艾倫在禁區的嚴密防守為豪。在最近的交手中，騎士優勢較大，但主場優勢和球迷的支持可能會助尼克斯一臂之力。注意三分球投籃命中率，因為兩隊都有策略性射手。由於他們注重防守，投注小比分可能相當值得考慮，儘管緊湊的比分也是有可能的。
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Featured Insight 金州勇士隊擅長外圍投籃，將面對達拉斯獨行俠隊，後者因盧卡·東契奇的組織能力而著稱。考慮勇士的主場優勢及獨行俠對東契奇的依賴。注意體現勇士快節奏和獨行俠防守的分差。
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Featured Insight 丹佛金塊隊將在備受期待的NBA比賽中對陣明尼蘇達灰狼隊。金塊隊在尼古拉·約基奇的領導下表現出色，主場戰績不俗。灰狼隊依靠卡爾-安東尼·唐斯和安東尼·愛德華茲的多樣化得分。丹佛的防守能否抗衡明尼蘇達的速度可能成為關鍵。由於主場優勢和約基奇的穩定發揮，投注者可能會偏好金塊隊。而灰狼若能有效利用快攻，可能成為黑馬。下注前請注意傷病報告。
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Featured Insight 洛杉磯湖人隊在歷史上對休斯頓火箭隊有優勢，但最近的表現顯示出更具競爭力的對決。湖人隊的經驗和明星實力使他們成為熱門，但年輕的火箭隊可能會憑藉速度和敏捷性帶來驚喜。勒布朗·詹姆斯對湖人隊和傑倫·格林對火箭隊等關鍵球員將至關重要。投注者在下注前應考慮當前狀態和傷病報告，因為這些因素可能對比賽結果產生巨大影響。
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Featured Insight 奧克拉荷馬城雷霆將對陣聖安東尼奧馬刺，這是一場引人入勝的NBA比賽。兩支球隊都以他們的年輕天才而聞名。雷霆的謝伊·吉爾傑斯-亞歷山大可能成為關鍵，而馬刺的維克托·溫班亞馬的存在可能會挑戰雷霆的防守。注意外線強勢表現。這場比賽對兩隊的季後賽希望至關重要。透過利用失誤來獲得優勢。
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Featured Insight 密爾沃基公鹿隊因其強勁的主場戰績被看好，但亞特蘭大老鷹隊的動態進攻可能帶來挑戰。揚尼斯·安特托昆博的表現對公鹿隊至關重要，而特雷·楊的策動能力可能推動老鷹隊。關注場上調整以及雙方的三分球投射，這可能影響比賽結果。
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Featured Insight 克里夫蘭騎士隊與奧克拉荷馬城雷霆隊的比賽預計將非常激烈。騎士隊擁有強大的防守，使他們成為一個難以對付的挑戰。雷霆隊憑藉其年輕的陣容將依靠快速反擊和動態得分。考慮投注一場緊張刺激的比賽，可能會到最後一刻才分勝負，並特別注意騎士隊前鋒和雷霆後衛的表現。
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Featured Insight 評估尼克斯的主場優勢和近期表現，檢查獨行俠客場表現和明星如盧卡·東契奇的表現，查看兩隊的傷病報告。主場優勢賦予尼克斯一定優勢，但獨行俠的強勁進攻可以抵消。關注投注線路和賠率變化，考慮背靠背比賽的影響。
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Featured Insight 波士頓凱爾特人以強勁的進攻在對陣底特律活塞時被看好。活塞面臨傷病困擾，影響了他們的防守策略。凱爾特人的深度和經驗使他們具有優勢。預計比賽將得分很高，因為活塞希望利用凱爾特人的防守漏洞。投注策略可以關注波士頓的分差及總得分的超過值。
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Featured Insight

高於和低於

下表顯示了每場比賽出現高於、低於以及恰好落在高於/低於線的機率。回報欄顯示的是玩家贏利與投注金額的比率，假設投注11勝10負。不出所料，表格顯示投注低於的賠率略高，勝率比投注高於高賠率高0.21%。

低於或高於總數

邊勝利可能性返回
超過3,232 0.492158 -0.051561
在下面3,246 0.494290 -0.047084
推89 0.013553
全部的6,567 1.000000 -0.044839

輸贏盤

下表顯示了輸贏盤投注的預期回報，假設每場比賽投註一個單位。結果顯示，投注客隊更具價值，預期回報高出0.53%。

輸贏盤

邊總投注總回報預期回報
家6,567 6,288.75 -0.042371
路6,567 6,323.26 -0.037115
全部的13,134 12,612.01 -0.037115

下表顯示了輸贏盤投注的預期回報率，並根據球隊是弱隊、強隊還是平隊進行調整。令人驚訝的是，至少對我來說，該表顯示強隊的價值更高，回報率高出0.46%。

熱門/冷門賠率

邊總投注總回報預期回報
最喜歡的6,506 6262.13 -0.037483
失敗者6,506 6232.14 -0.042093
甚至122 117.74 -0.034932
全部的13,134 12612.01 -0.039743

下表顯示了按讓分計算的實際獲勝機率和預估獲勝機率。預估機率使用邏輯迴歸來平滑波動。

點差獲勝機率

傳播勝利遊戲實際的
可能性		估計的
可能性		公平的
線
-15.5二十六24 0.923077 0.922718 -1194
-15 40三十九0.975000 0.916818 -1102
-14.5四十四三十八0.863636 0.910510 -1017
-14 49四十四0.897959 0.903774 -939
-13.5 76 70 0.921053 0.896589 -867
-13 69 64 0.927536 0.888933 -800
-12.5 88 80 0.909091 0.880786 -739
-12 102 87 0.852941 0.872127 -682
-11.5 125 109 0.872000 0.862937 -630
-11 130 112 0.861538 0.853198 -581
-10.5 135 113 0.837037 0.842893 -537
-10 168 132 0.785714 0.832006 -495
-9.5 174 138 0.793103 0.820527 -457
-9 231 191 0.826840 0.808443 -422
-8.5 206 154 0.747573 0.795748 -390
-8 248 193 0.778226 0.782438 -360
-7.5 273 194 0.710623 0.768513 -332
-7 269 186 0.691450 0.753978 -306
-6.5 314 227 0.722930 0.738839 -283
-6 337 237 0.703264 0.723112 -261
-5.5 336 209 0.622024 0.706812 -241
-5 358 245 0.684358 0.689965 -223
-4.5 348 224 0.643678 0.672599 -205
-4 344 205 0.595930 0.654746 -190
-3.5 328 186 0.567073 0.636446 -175
-3 349 195 0.558739 0.617742 -162
-2.5 340 199 0.585294 0.598683 -149
-2 367 206 0.561308 0.579320 -138
-1.5 283 157 0.554770 0.559710 -127
-1 254 135 0.531496 0.539913 -117
1 254 119 0.468504 0.460087 117
1.5 283 126 0.445230 0.440290 127
2 367 161 0.438692 0.420680 138
2.5 340 141 0.414706 0.401317 149
3 349 154 0.441261 0.382258 162
3.5 328 142 0.432927 0.363554 175
4 344 139 0.404070 0.345254 190
4.5 347 124 0.357349 0.327401 205
5 358 113 0.315642 0.310035 223
5.5 336 127 0.377976 0.293188 241
6 337 100 0.296736 0.276888 261
6.5 314 87 0.277070 0.261161 283
7 269 83 0.308550 0.246022 306
7.5 273 79 0.289377 0.231487 332
8 248 55 0.221774 0.217562 360
8.5 206 52 0.252427 0.204252 390
9 231 40 0.173160 0.191557 422
9.5 174三十六0.206897 0.179473 457
10 168三十六0.214286 0.167994 495
10.5 135 22 0.162963 0.157107 537
11 130 18 0.138462 0.146802 581
11.5 125 16 0.128000 0.137063 630
12 102 15 0.147059 0.127873 682
12.5 88 8 0.090909 0.119214 739
十三69 5 0.072464 0.111067 800
13.5 76 6 0.078947 0.103411 867
14 49 5 0.102041 0.096226 939
14.5四十四6 0.136364 0.089490 1017
15 40 1 0.025000 0.083182 1102
15.5二十六2 0.076923 0.077282 1194

萬一您遇到絕對值大於 15.5 的點差，那麼獲勝的機率可以估計為 e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s))，其中 s 是點差。

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Players rated BUSR 2.4 out of 5 Stars
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Players rated Bovada Casino 3.9 out of 5 Stars
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Players rated BetOnline Casino 3.3 out of 5 Stars
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內部連結

2018年我更新這個頁面的時候，有很多不太知名的表格，我懶得更新了。不過，我當時做這些表格的時候，投入了太多精力，實在捨不得丟掉。所以，我把這個頁面拆分成了「NBA博彩中的冷門話題」 。

撰寫者: Michael Shackleford