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投注NBA

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投注NBA

介紹

本頁介紹籃球博彩，特別是NBA。本頁面的數據是根據2013年至2017年賽季的6,567場歷史比賽。假設讀者了解基本的體育博彩術語。如果不了解，請先造訪我的體育博彩頁面。

押注差價

平均而言，主隊勝率為58.4%，比客隊多得2.70分。然而，如果投注讓分盤，我認為客隊的價值更高，如下表所示。表格是基於投注11勝10負的投注。回報欄顯示的是預期贏錢（或負數情況下的損失）佔投注金額的百分比。如你所見，投注主隊的莊家優勢為6.22%，而客隊的莊家優勢僅為2.70%。

客隊或主隊對上讓分盤

邊勝利可能性返回
路3,280 0.499467 -0.026981
家3,159 0.481042 -0.062157
推128 0.019491
全部的6,567 1.000000 -0.044569

下表顯示了投注弱隊和強隊的讓分盤結果。這不包括讓分盤為零的61場比賽。我原本預計弱隊會表現得更好，但結果證明我錯了——他們的表現只是略勝一籌。如你所見，弱隊獲勝的機率僅比強隊高0.4%。回報顯示的是預期玩家贏（負數表示輸）與投注金額的比率，假設玩家投注11贏10。

弱勢方或優勢方

邊勝利可能性返回
最喜歡的3,176 0.488165 -0.048375
失敗者3,202 0.492161 -0.040746
推128 0.019674
全部的6,506 1.000000 -0.044560

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精選見解 黃蜂隊將在一場勢均力敵的比賽中迎戰魔術隊。兩隊後場都充滿活力：黃蜂隊的鮑爾和羅齊爾，以及魔術隊的薩格斯和富爾茨。比賽的結果可能會有變數，但黃蜂隊近期的狀態給了他們一絲優勢。分析師強調了魔術隊作為黑馬的潛力，使他們成為一項風險高但可能回報豐厚的賭注。球員的健康狀況和主場優勢將是決定比賽結果的關鍵。
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精選見解 密爾瓦基公鹿隊與金州勇士隊展開一場引人注目的對決。公鹿隊以其強大的防守和吉安尼斯·安特托昆博的存在而聞名，而勇士隊則依賴斯蒂芬·庫里的投籃能力。關鍵在於勇士能否很好地遏制住吉安尼斯，以及公鹿能否限制庫里的影響。預計這將是一場高能量的比賽，雙方球隊都會加快節奏。博彩賠率可能會偏向主隊，但明星球員的個人表現可能會改變結果。
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精選見解 在馬刺對熱火的比賽中，考慮到熱火隊在主場的出色表現，他們往往在邁阿密表現出色。關注吉米巴特勒在場上的領導能力，這可能是關鍵。馬刺的年輕陣容在防守方面可能對抗邁阿密的經驗豐富的球員時感到困難。評估最近的傷病和球員數據可能對比賽提供更多見解。考慮到雙方都有可能得分較高，投注總得分可能會有價值。關注最新的球隊新聞以做出最後時刻的調整。
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精選見解 步行者隊和老鷹隊的對決將是一場令人期待的比賽。注意老鷹隊特雷·楊的組織能力和步行者隊泰瑞斯·哈利伯頓的獨特技能。老鷹隊可能利用主場優勢，但步行者隊的動態進攻風格可能帶來驚喜。兩隊都有得分能手，這場比賽可能得分很高。
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精選見解 費城76人隊對陣波士頓凱爾特人隊面臨嚴峻挑戰。費城的喬爾·恩比德將在這場比賽中起關鍵作用，但波士頓的強大防守和深度可能會決定比賽。雖然76人在客場表現掙扎，但凱爾特人在主場表現良好。如果凱爾特人的外圍投籃狀態良好，他們可能佔據上風。考慮到近期表現，凱爾特人可能會以微弱優勢獲勝。
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讓分盤
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精選見解 克里夫蘭騎士隊專注於維持強大的防守，而多倫多猛龍隊則希望利用快速的進攻。考察對戰統計數據；猛龍在近期對戰中略勝騎士。多諾萬·米切爾和帕斯卡爾·西亞卡姆等關鍵球員可能會對比賽結果產生重大影響。此外，傷病對比賽至關重要，請留意最後時刻的陣容變動。
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精選見解 芝加哥公牛隊與紐約尼克斯隊的比賽在NBA中展現出一場激動人心的對決。兩隊在最近的比賽中都有出色表現。公牛隊的強大防守和尼克斯隊的動態進攻將是關鍵因素。投注愛好者應關注像扎克·拉文和朱利葉斯·蘭德爾這樣的明星球員的表現。主場優勢和近期狀態等因素可能會影響結果。下賭注時需考慮傷病和教練策略的影響。
Fri Oct 31st 09pm Memphis Grizzlies Los Angeles Lakers
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精選見解 孟菲斯灰熊對洛杉磯湖人的比賽預計會非常激動人心。在莫蘭特的帶領下，灰熊希望擊敗詹姆士和湖人。兩隊均展示了強大的進攻能力，但湖人的經驗可能使他們略勝一籌。投注者應考慮湖人的主場優勢。關鍵因素包括球員的健康狀況和近期表現。
Fri Oct 31st 10pm Phoenix Suns Utah Jazz
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讓分盤
總分盤
精選見解 在即將到來的菲尼克斯太陽隊對陣猶他爵士隊的比賽中，要注意太陽隊強大的進攻，特別是他們的得分後衛。同時，爵士隊的防守將至關重要，特別是在防守外線方面。需要關注的關鍵球員是太陽隊的德文·布克和爵士隊的魯迪·戈貝爾。比賽可能會由三分球和失誤決定。
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讓分盤
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精選見解 丹佛金塊隊，擁有包括尼古拉·約基奇在內的強大陣容，是對陣波特蘭拓荒者隊的熱門球隊。拓荒者對達米安·利拉德的依賴可能是一場賭博，特別是在金塊隊的主場優勢下。預計將是一場高得分的比賽，因為兩隊都有進攻優勢。投注建議：考慮金塊獲勝和總得分的高分。
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總分盤
精選見解 由卡瓦伊·雷納德主導進攻的快船隊將面對年輕的鵜鶘隊，後者的錫安·威廉姆森技藝非凡。快船隊的經驗使他們略占優勢，但如果鵜鶘隊能夠利用他們的速度和威廉姆森的統治力，則有可能爆冷。盤口可能傾向於快船，但冒險者可能在鵜鶘上看到潛在價值，當有良好的讓分時尤其如此。
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Mon Nov 3rd 07pm Arizona Wildcats Florida Gators
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精選見解 亞利桑那野貓隊與佛羅里達短吻鱷隊之間進行激烈的NBA對抗。野貓隊攻擊力強，而短吻鱷隊注重防守。像本尼迪克·馬圖林和科林·卡斯爾頓這樣的關鍵球員可以扭轉戰局。博彩公司通常青睞陣容平衡的球隊。對博彩感興趣的人可能會考慮亞利桑那的激進打法對比佛羅里達的防守陣型。在投注前請關注球員傷病以及最近的團隊表現，因為這些因素可以顯著影響比賽結果。
Mon Nov 3rd 09pm BYU Cougars Villanova Wildcats
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精選見解 考慮到Cougars強大的攻勢策略，但要警惕Wildcats堅固的防守。BYU的投籃準確性可能構成威脅，但Villanova的紀律性打法使他們具備韌性。主場優勢可能也會對Wildcats有利。分析傷病報告和近期表現以獲得更深的見解。
Tue Nov 4th 07pm Duke Blue Devils Texas Longhorns
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精選見解 杜克藍魔隊通常是強有力的競爭者，擁有技藝高超的球員和戰略教練。德克薩斯長角牛隊也因其激進的打法和堅定的防守而成為強大的挑戰。關鍵因素包括每支球隊的投籃準確性以及在壓力下執行的能力。請注意兩隊明星球員的出色表現。
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高於和低於

下表顯示了每場比賽出現高於、低於以及恰好落在高於/低於線的機率。回報欄顯示的是玩家贏利與投注金額的比率，假設投注11勝10負。不出所料，表格顯示投注低於的賠率略高，勝率比投注高於高賠率高0.21%。

低於或高於總數

邊勝利可能性返回
超過3,232 0.492158 -0.051561
在下面3,246 0.494290 -0.047084
推89 0.013553
全部的6,567 1.000000 -0.044839

輸贏盤

下表顯示了輸贏盤投注的預期回報，假設每場比賽投註一個單位。結果顯示，投注客隊更具價值，預期回報高出0.53%。

輸贏盤

邊總投注總回報預期回報
家6,567 6,288.75 -0.042371
路6,567 6,323.26 -0.037115
全部的13,134 12,612.01 -0.037115

下表顯示了輸贏盤投注的預期回報率，並根據球隊是弱隊、強隊還是平隊進行調整。令人驚訝的是，至少對我來說，該表顯示強隊的價值更高，回報率高出0.46%。

熱門/冷門賠率

邊總投注總回報預期回報
最喜歡的6,506 6262.13 -0.037483
失敗者6,506 6232.14 -0.042093
甚至122 117.74 -0.034932
全部的13,134 12612.01 -0.039743

下表顯示了按讓分計算的實際獲勝機率和預估獲勝機率。預估機率使用邏輯迴歸來平滑波動。

點差獲勝機率

傳播勝利遊戲實際的
可能性		估計的
可能性		公平的
線
-15.5二十六24 0.923077 0.922718 -1194
-15 40三十九0.975000 0.916818 -1102
-14.5四十四三十八0.863636 0.910510 -1017
-14 49四十四0.897959 0.903774 -939
-13.5 76 70 0.921053 0.896589 -867
-13 69 64 0.927536 0.888933 -800
-12.5 88 80 0.909091 0.880786 -739
-12 102 87 0.852941 0.872127 -682
-11.5 125 109 0.872000 0.862937 -630
-11 130 112 0.861538 0.853198 -581
-10.5 135 113 0.837037 0.842893 -537
-10 168 132 0.785714 0.832006 -495
-9.5 174 138 0.793103 0.820527 -457
-9 231 191 0.826840 0.808443 -422
-8.5 206 154 0.747573 0.795748 -390
-8 248 193 0.778226 0.782438 -360
-7.5 273 194 0.710623 0.768513 -332
-7 269 186 0.691450 0.753978 -306
-6.5 314 227 0.722930 0.738839 -283
-6 337 237 0.703264 0.723112 -261
-5.5 336 209 0.622024 0.706812 -241
-5 358 245 0.684358 0.689965 -223
-4.5 348 224 0.643678 0.672599 -205
-4 344 205 0.595930 0.654746 -190
-3.5 328 186 0.567073 0.636446 -175
-3 349 195 0.558739 0.617742 -162
-2.5 340 199 0.585294 0.598683 -149
-2 367 206 0.561308 0.579320 -138
-1.5 283 157 0.554770 0.559710 -127
-1 254 135 0.531496 0.539913 -117
1 254 119 0.468504 0.460087 117
1.5 283 126 0.445230 0.440290 127
2 367 161 0.438692 0.420680 138
2.5 340 141 0.414706 0.401317 149
3 349 154 0.441261 0.382258 162
3.5 328 142 0.432927 0.363554 175
4 344 139 0.404070 0.345254 190
4.5 347 124 0.357349 0.327401 205
5 358 113 0.315642 0.310035 223
5.5 336 127 0.377976 0.293188 241
6 337 100 0.296736 0.276888 261
6.5 314 87 0.277070 0.261161 283
7 269 83 0.308550 0.246022 306
7.5 273 79 0.289377 0.231487 332
8 248 55 0.221774 0.217562 360
8.5 206 52 0.252427 0.204252 390
9 231 40 0.173160 0.191557 422
9.5 174三十六0.206897 0.179473 457
10 168三十六0.214286 0.167994 495
10.5 135 22 0.162963 0.157107 537
11 130 18 0.138462 0.146802 581
11.5 125 16 0.128000 0.137063 630
12 102 15 0.147059 0.127873 682
12.5 88 8 0.090909 0.119214 739
十三69 5 0.072464 0.111067 800
13.5 76 6 0.078947 0.103411 867
14 49 5 0.102041 0.096226 939
14.5四十四6 0.136364 0.089490 1017
15 40 1 0.025000 0.083182 1102
15.5二十六2 0.076923 0.077282 1194

萬一您遇到絕對值大於 15.5 的點差，那麼獲勝的機率可以估計為 e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s))，其中 s 是點差。

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內部連結

2018年我更新這個頁面的時候，有很多不太知名的表格，我懶得更新了。不過，我當時做這些表格的時候，投入了太多精力，實在捨不得丟掉。所以，我把這個頁面拆分成了「NBA博彩中的冷門話題」 。

撰寫者: Michael Shackleford