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投注NBA

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投注NBA

介紹

本頁介紹籃球博彩,特別是NBA。本頁面的數據是根據2013年至2017年賽季的6,567場歷史比賽。假設讀者了解基本的體育博彩術語。如果不了解,請先造訪我的體育博彩頁面。

押注差價

平均而言,主隊勝率為58.4%,比客隊多得2.70分。然而,如果投注讓分盤,我認為客隊的價值更高,如下表所示。表格是基於投注11勝10負的投注。回報欄顯示的是預期贏錢(或負數情況下的損失)佔投注金額的百分比。如你所見,投注主隊的莊家優勢為6.22%,而客隊的莊家優勢僅為2.70%。

客隊或主隊對上讓分盤

勝利可能性返回
3,280 0.499467 -0.026981
3,159 0.481042 -0.062157
128 0.019491
全部的6,567 1.000000 -0.044569

下表顯示了投注弱隊和強隊的讓分盤結果。這不包括讓分盤為零的61場比賽。我原本預計弱隊會表現得更好,但結果證明我錯了——他們的表現只是略勝一籌。如你所見,弱隊獲勝的機率僅比強隊高0.4%。回報顯示的是預期玩家贏(負數表示輸)與投注金額的比率,假設玩家投注11贏10。

弱勢方或優勢方

勝利可能性返回
最喜歡的3,176 0.488165 -0.048375
失敗者3,202 0.492161 -0.040746
128 0.019674
全部的6,506 1.000000 -0.044560

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高於和低於

下表顯示了每場比賽出現高於、低於以及恰好落在高於/低於線的機率。回報欄顯示的是玩家贏利與投注金額的比率,假設投注11勝10負。不出所料,表格顯示投注低於的賠率略高,勝率比投注高於高賠率高0.21%。

低於或高於總數

勝利可能性返回
超過3,232 0.492158 -0.051561
在下面3,246 0.494290 -0.047084
89 0.013553
全部的6,567 1.000000 -0.044839

輸贏盤

下表顯示了輸贏盤投注的預期回報,假設每場比賽投註一個單位。結果顯示,投注客隊更具價值,預期回報高出0.53%。

輸贏盤

總投注總回報預期回報
6,567 6,288.75 -0.042371
6,567 6,323.26 -0.037115
全部的13,134 12,612.01 -0.037115

下表顯示了輸贏盤投注的預期回報率,並根據球隊是弱隊、強隊還是平隊進行調整。令人驚訝的是,至少對我來說,該表顯示強隊的價值更高,回報率高出0.46%。

熱門/冷門賠率

總投注總回報預期回報
最喜歡的6,506 6262.13 -0.037483
失敗者6,506 6232.14 -0.042093
甚至122 117.74 -0.034932
全部的13,134 12612.01 -0.039743

下表顯示了按讓分計算的實際獲勝機率和預估獲勝機率。預估機率使用邏輯迴歸來平滑波動。

點差獲勝機率

傳播勝利遊戲實際的
可能性
估計的
可能性
公平的
-15.5二十六24 0.923077 0.922718 -1194
-15 40三十九0.975000 0.916818 -1102
-14.5四十四三十八0.863636 0.910510 -1017
-14 49四十四0.897959 0.903774 -939
-13.5 76 70 0.921053 0.896589 -867
-13 69 64 0.927536 0.888933 -800
-12.5 88 80 0.909091 0.880786 -739
-12 102 87 0.852941 0.872127 -682
-11.5 125 109 0.872000 0.862937 -630
-11 130 112 0.861538 0.853198 -581
-10.5 135 113 0.837037 0.842893 -537
-10 168 132 0.785714 0.832006 -495
-9.5 174 138 0.793103 0.820527 -457
-9 231 191 0.826840 0.808443 -422
-8.5 206 154 0.747573 0.795748 -390
-8 248 193 0.778226 0.782438 -360
-7.5 273 194 0.710623 0.768513 -332
-7 269 186 0.691450 0.753978 -306
-6.5 314 227 0.722930 0.738839 -283
-6 337 237 0.703264 0.723112 -261
-5.5 336 209 0.622024 0.706812 -241
-5 358 245 0.684358 0.689965 -223
-4.5 348 224 0.643678 0.672599 -205
-4 344 205 0.595930 0.654746 -190
-3.5 328 186 0.567073 0.636446 -175
-3 349 195 0.558739 0.617742 -162
-2.5 340 199 0.585294 0.598683 -149
-2 367 206 0.561308 0.579320 -138
-1.5 283 157 0.554770 0.559710 -127
-1 254 135 0.531496 0.539913 -117
1 254 119 0.468504 0.460087 117
1.5 283 126 0.445230 0.440290 127
2 367 161 0.438692 0.420680 138
2.5 340 141 0.414706 0.401317 149
3 349 154 0.441261 0.382258 162
3.5 328 142 0.432927 0.363554 175
4 344 139 0.404070 0.345254 190
4.5 347 124 0.357349 0.327401 205
5 358 113 0.315642 0.310035 223
5.5 336 127 0.377976 0.293188 241
6 337 100 0.296736 0.276888 261
6.5 314 87 0.277070 0.261161 283
7 269 83 0.308550 0.246022 306
7.5 273 79 0.289377 0.231487 332
8 248 55 0.221774 0.217562 360
8.5 206 52 0.252427 0.204252 390
9 231 40 0.173160 0.191557 422
9.5 174三十六0.206897 0.179473 457
10 168三十六0.214286 0.167994 495
10.5 135 22 0.162963 0.157107 537
11 130 18 0.138462 0.146802 581
11.5 125 16 0.128000 0.137063 630
12 102 15 0.147059 0.127873 682
12.5 88 8 0.090909 0.119214 739
十三69 5 0.072464 0.111067 800
13.5 76 6 0.078947 0.103411 867
14 49 5 0.102041 0.096226 939
14.5四十四6 0.136364 0.089490 1017
15 40 1 0.025000 0.083182 1102
15.5二十六2 0.076923 0.077282 1194

萬一您遇到絕對值大於 15.5 的點差,那麼獲勝的機率可以估計為 e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)),其中 s 是點差。

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內部連結

2018年我更新這個頁面的時候,有很多不太知名的表格,我懶得更新了。不過,我當時做這些表格的時候,投入了太多精力,實在捨不得丟掉。所以,我把這個頁面拆分成了「NBA博彩中的冷門話題」