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大學橄欖球博彩

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大學橄欖球博彩

介紹

本頁旨在解釋大學橄欖球投注的各種方式。我提供了一些常用的統計數據和建議。

平均值

下表可能對體育書籍沒有任何幫助，但我認為這是比較大學橄欖球和NFL 的一種有趣方式。

足球平均值

統計大學NFL
總得分52.80 42.15
大於/小於總數48.31 41.32
點差-5.40 -2.45
主場勝率5.68 2.66
首攻39.49 37.64
衝刺嘗試77.15 55.21
衝刺碼數313.12 229.52
傳球嘗試62.34 66.44
傳球碼數438.52 430.63
攔截2.06 2.02
開球回攻碼數166.14 161.90
處罰12.81 12.43
罰球碼數109.36 102.77
失球3.44 2.94
失球1.74 1.41
棄踢10.35 9.66
棄踢碼數419.42 415.04
薩克斯4.13 4.54
麻袋場27.66 29.18
第一節得分11.95 8.33
第二節得分15.39 12.94
第三節得分12.07 8.92
第四節得分13.30 11.75

勝利的差距

下表顯示了每次勝利的次數和頻率。

勝利的差距

利潤
勝利		遊戲百分比
1 413 3.35%
2 327 2.65%
3 1187 9.63%
4 475 3.85%
5 324 2.63%
6 362 2.94%
7 901 7.31%
8 294 2.38%
9 152 1.23%
10 535 4.34%
11 289 2.34%
12 221 1.79%
十三225 1.82%
14 533 4.32%
15 139 1.13%
16 169 1.37%
17 488 3.96%
18 308 2.50%
19 179 1.45%
20 267 2.17%
21 452 3.67%
22 161 1.31%
23 174 1.41%
24 352 2.85%
二十五226 1.83%
二十六135 1.09%
二十七213 1.73%
二十八337 2.73%
二十九99 0.80%
三十130 1.05%
31 270 2.19%
三十二160 1.30%
33 73 0.59%
三十四167 1.35%
三十五219 1.78%
三十六63 0.51%
三十七93 0.75%
三十八173 1.40%
三十九91 0.74%
40三十七0.30%
41 94 0.76%
四十二128 1.04%
43二十八0.23%
四十四49 0.40%
45 96 0.78%
46 41 0.33%
四十七二十五0.20%
四十八63 0.51%
49 77 0.62%
50 20 0.16%
51 23 0.19%
52 46 0.37%
53三十0.24%
54 7 0.06%
55二十六0.21%
56三十五0.28%
57 6 0.05%
58 19 0.15%
59 21 0.17%
60 8 0.06%
61 1 0.01%
62 14 0.11%
63 23 0.19%
64歲以上三十八0.31%
全部的12331 100.00%

下表按順序顯示了前十名的勝利幅度。

十大勝負分差

秩利潤
勝利		遊戲百分比
1 3 1,187 9.63%
2 7 901 7.31%
3 10 535 4.34%
4 14 533 4.32%
5 17 488 3.96%
6 4 475 3.85%
7 21 452 3.67%
8 1 413 3.35%
9 6 362 2.94%
10 24 352 2.85%
全部的5,698 46.21%

點差

投注任何足球比賽的主要方式是讓分盤。下表顯示了勝、負、平手的機率，以及根據主隊/客隊、弱隊/強隊投注的所有組合得出的預期價值。表假設投注者投注11勝10負，這幾乎總是如此。

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Featured Insight 由於其強大的進攻和穩固的防守，博伊西州立大學野馬隊被看好。雖然新墨西哥大學洛博斯隊為下風者，但他們的地面攻勢不斷進步，有潛力制造冷門。預計博伊西州立關鍵球員如其四分衛和主要跑鋒將佔據主導地位。在投注時，可考慮差點和總得分，因為博伊西州立的高比分比賽顯示投注“超”可能是明智的。
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Featured Insight 阿拉巴馬紅潮隊和田納西志願者隊都是大學橄欖球的強隊。阿拉巴馬的強大防守和成熟的進攻讓他們略有優勢。田納西的動態進攻威脅不小，但關鍵在於穩定性。關注阿拉巴馬四分衛的表現和田納西的防守策略。特勤組可能成為比賽的關鍵，尤為強調射門得分和回球。
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Featured Insight 亞利桑那州太陽魔鬼隊與德克薩斯理工紅襲者隊之間的對決將是一場激烈的戰鬥。兩支球隊都展示了進攻能力，亞利桑那州立大學的防守記錄稍好。關鍵球員包括德克薩斯理工的四分衛和亞利桑那州立大學的跑衛。失誤可能是決定性因素，特殊隊伍可能發揮關鍵作用。在下注之前考慮球隊的現狀和傷病報告，因為這些因素可能會顯著影響結果。
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Featured Insight
Sat Oct 18th 12pm Michigan Wolverines Washington Huskies
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Featured Insight 密歇根狼獾擁有強大的防守和強大的跑動能力，使他們成為華盛頓哈士奇的難纏對手。華盛頓需要提高其進攻的一致性，以有效挑戰密歇根。預計這將是一場激烈的比賽，密歇根由於其主場優勢稍占上風。狼獾隊被看好，但華盛頓在場上兩端的潛力可能會導致冷門。
Sat Oct 18th 12pm Duke Blue Devils Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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Featured Insight 杜克藍魔隊本賽季表現強勁，擁有穩固的防守和令人印象深刻的進攻數據。他們可能是對陣喬治亞理工黃蜂隊的熱門球隊，後者在穩定性上存在問題。儘管喬治亞理工最近表現出色，但杜克的平衡陣容和當前狀態使他們成為值得支持的球隊。在您的投注策略中考慮杜克的近期表現和對戰優勢。
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Featured Insight 詹姆斯·麥迪遜的公爵隊本賽季展現出穩定的實力，防守出色，使他們在與老自治領的君主隊對陣時更被看好。由於老自治領在保持穩健進攻方面的困難，公爵隊可能佔據上風。注意失誤是至關重要的，因為詹姆斯·麥迪遜善於利用對手的錯誤。博彩趨勢表明更傾向於詹姆斯·麥迪遜，但考慮到老自治領的潛在驚喜，建議謹慎下注。
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Featured Insight 奧本老虎隊和密蘇里老虎隊在一場激烈的對決中相遇。奧本的地面進攻很強，有效利用了密蘇里的防守漏洞。然而，密蘇里展現了強大的傳球進攻，挑戰奧本的二線防守。奧本的關鍵球員包括他們爆炸性的跑衛，而密蘇里則依賴四分衛的傳球能力。天氣狀況和主場優勢可能影響比賽結果。投注者應考慮奧本超強的跑步數據與密蘇里傳球能力的對比。
Sat Oct 18th 12pm Vanderbilt Commodores LSU Tigers
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Featured Insight 在本週末的比賽中，LSU猛虎隊是對陣范德堡指揮者隊的強大熱門。憑藉強大的進攻和主場優勢，預計LSU將佔據主導地位。范德堡需要在進攻和防守方面有所改進以保持競爭力。關鍵球員包括LSU的四分衛和范德堡的防守線。投注賠率大幅偏向LSU。
Sat Oct 18th 03pm Boise State Broncos UNLV Rebels
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Featured Insight 博伊西州立野馬隊以其強大的防守而聞名，他們將迎戰今年表現出強大戰鬥力的UNLV反叛者。歷史上，博伊西州立隊在系列賽中領先，但UNLV最近的狀態可能會讓人驚訝。關鍵球員將成為焦點，而失誤可能會影響戰局。博彩賠率更傾向於博伊西，但別忽視UNLV的主場優勢。
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Featured Insight 聖母大學的強大防守面對USC爆炸性的進攻是一個挑戰。USC的四分衛正帶領本賽季最強的進攻之一，但聖母大學的防守在主場非常有力。注意失誤和防守攔截，這些可能是比賽的轉折點。天氣和主場優勢可能對聖母大學起關鍵作用。下注時聰明地關注分差和總得分。

點差投注

賭注機率獲勝機率損失機率平局預期的
價值
所有弱勢群體0.496298 0.487591 0.016112 -0.036411
所有收藏0.487591 0.496298 0.016112 -0.053033
所有家0.498338 0.485605 0.016057 -0.032571
全部離開0.485605 0.498338 0.016057 -0.056878
主場弱勢方0.505600 0.474971 0.019429 -0.015335
家鄉最愛0.494567 0.491155 0.014278 -0.041549
客場劣勢0.491155 0.494567 0.014278 -0.048062
客場熱門0.474971 0.505600 0.019429 -0.073808

大小磁碟

下表顯示了投注高於/低於線的可能結果和預期價值。

大小投注

賭注機率獲勝機率損失機率平局預期的
價值
在下面0.503232 0.483320 0.013447 -0.025836
超過0.483320 0.503232 0.013447 -0.063850

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遊戲 閱讀評論

輸贏盤

下表顯示了我數據中弱勢方在每個讓分點上的比賽場次，以及弱勢方獲勝的次數。它還顯示了我在消除所有波動後估計的獲勝機率。右欄顯示了基於估算獲勝機率的公平線。

弱隊獲勝的機率（以點差計算）

傳播勝利遊戲實際的
可能性		估計的
可能性		公平的
輸贏盤
0四十二84 50.0% 50.0% 100
0.5 0 0 0.0% 48.5% 106
1 125 268 46.6% 47.1% 112
1.5 130 246 52.8% 45.6% 119
2 124 264 47.0% 44.2% 126
2.5 224 482 46.5% 42.7% 134
3 318 700 45.4% 41.3% 142
3.5 182 507 35.9% 39.9% 151
4 134 326 41.1% 38.5% 160
4.5 97 279 34.8% 37.1% 169
5 89 227 39.2% 35.8% 179
5.5 102 285 35.8% 34.5% 190
6 109 330 33.0% 33.2% 202
6.5 130 418 31.1% 31.9% 214
7 172 551 31.2% 30.6% 227
7.5 100 365 27.4% 29.4% 240
8 60 227 26.4% 28.2% 255
8.5 59 202 29.2% 27.0% 270
9 55 199 27.6% 25.9% 286
9.5 57 242 23.6% 24.8% 304
10 121 401 30.2% 23.7% 322
10.5 56 250 22.4% 22.7% 341
11四十八196 24.5% 21.7% 362
11.5三十141 21.3% 20.7% 383
12三十六175 20.6% 19.7% 407
12.5三十八162 23.5% 18.8% 431
十三三十八222 17.1% 18.0% 457
13.5 59 245 24.1% 17.1% 484
14四十八331 14.5% 16.3% 514
14.5二十九184 15.8% 15.5% 544
15 19 139 13.7% 14.8% 577
15.5 20 110 18.2% 14.0% 612
16二十五134 18.7% 13.4% 649
16.5 16 162 9.9% 12.7% 688
17二十六246 10.6% 12.1% 729
17.5 18 144 12.5% 11.5% 773
18 7 110 6.4% 10.9% 820
18.5 7 82 8.5% 10.3% 869
19 11 109 10.1% 9.8% 921
19.5 9 87 10.3% 9.3% 977
20 11 152 7.2% 8.8% 1,036
20.5 12 113 10.6% 8.3% 1,098
21 6 153 3.9% 7.9% 1,164
21.5 4 104 3.8% 7.5% 1,234
22 7 107 6.5% 7.1% 1,308
22.5 5 68 7.4% 6.7% 1,387
23 7 93 7.5% 6.4% 1,470
23.5 5 98 5.1% 6.0% 1,559
24 4 126 3.2% 5.7% 1,653
24.5 4 85 4.7% 5.4% 1,752
二十五7 66 10.6% 5.1% 1,858
25.5 1四十八2.1% 4.8% 1,969
二十六2 68 2.9% 4.6% 2,088
26.5 6 61 9.8% 4.3% 2,214
二十七1 79 1.3% 4.1% 2,347
27.5 6 73 8.2% 3.9% 2,488
二十八6 108 5.6% 3.7% 2,638
28.5 5 57 8.8% 3.5% 2,796
二十九2 52 3.8% 3.3% 2,965
29.5 1 45 2.2% 3.1% 3,143
三十1 50 2.0% 2.9% 3,332
30.5 3四十七6.4% 2.8% 3,533
31 2 54 3.7% 2.6% 3,745

要計算熱門球隊獲勝的機率，只需取弱隊在同一場比賽中獲勝機率與100%之間的差值即可。例如，一支7分的弱隊預計獲勝機率為30.6%。因此，一支7分的熱門球隊獲勝機率為100%-30.6% = 69.4%。

需要注意的是，估算機率並未考慮關鍵數字。例如，2.5分和3.5分的弱勢球隊之間的獲勝機率差異，很可能高於估算機率欄中建議的42.7% - 39.9% = 2.8%。

我還根據主場或客場弱勢球隊來觀察這條曲線，但並未發現統計上有足夠大的差異，需要進行特殊處理。

下圖說明了實際和估計的獲勝機率。

購買額外積分

下表顯示了根據公平讓分盤口，在不計算平局的情況下，額外獲得0.5到2.5分的獲勝機率。例如，你認為某隊的公平讓分盤口為+3，但有人給你+3.5，那麼你的獲勝機率就是53.42%。

弱隊獲勝的機率（以點差計算）

傳播0.5 分1.0 分1.5 分2.0 分2.5 分
-21 0.520918 0.536281 0.551179 0.558373 0.565335
-20.5 0.515827 0.531190 0.538615 0.545809 0.558769
-20 0.515827 0.523484 0.530910 0.544301 0.557260
-19.5 0.507889 0.515546 0.529368 0.542759 0.558504
-19 0.507889 0.522142 0.535964 0.552234 0.567979
-18.5 0.514684 0.528938 0.545731 0.562001 0.568052
-18 0.514684 0.532002 0.548795 0.555047 0.561098
-17.5 0.517841 0.535159 0.541612 0.547864 0.553831
-17 0.517841 0.524496 0.530949 0.537114 0.543082
-16.5 0.506856 0.513510 0.519874 0.526040 0.544503
-16 0.506856 0.513418 0.519782 0.538860 0.557322
-15.5 0.506761 0.513324 0.533015 0.552092 0.560656
-15 0.506761 0.527067 0.546758 0.555606 0.564170
-14.5 0.520920 0.541225 0.550359 0.559207 0.567110
-14 0.520920 0.530338 0.539471 0.547638 0.555541
-13.5 0.509703 0.519121 0.527551 0.535717 0.544988
-13 0.509703 0.518395 0.526824 0.536404 0.545675
-12.5 0.508955 0.517647 0.527535 0.537115 0.555027
-12 0.508955 0.519152 0.529040 0.547548 0.565460
-11.5 0.510505 0.520702 0.539805 0.558313 0.563415
-11 0.510505 0.530205 0.549309 0.554580 0.559682
-10.5 0.520296 0.539995 0.545437 0.550708 0.559247
-10 0.520296 0.525907 0.531348 0.540171 0.548710
-9.5 0.505781 0.511392 0.520499 0.529322 0.554459
-9 0.505781 0.515172 0.524279 0.550252 0.575390
-8.5 0.509675 0.519066 0.545876 0.571850 0.582682
-8 0.509675 0.537321 0.564131 0.575324 0.586157
-7.5 0.528483 0.556129 0.567682 0.578875 0.588874
-7 0.528483 0.540396 0.551950 0.562281 0.572279
-6.5 0.512274 0.524188 0.534852 0.545183 0.559015
-6 0.512274 0.523271 0.533934 0.548227 0.562059
-5.5 0.511329 0.522325 0.537078 0.551370 0.581534
-5 0.511329 0.526542 0.541294 0.572461 0.602625
-4.5 0.515673 0.530885 0.563056 0.594223 0.604564
-4 0.515673 0.548847 0.581017 0.591702 0.602043
-3.5 0.534178 0.567352 0.578381 0.589065 0.601917
-3 0.534178 0.545551 0.556579 0.569858 0.582709
-2.5 0.511717 0.523090 0.536796 0.550075 0.554541
-2 0.511717 0.525851 0.539557 0.544172 0.548638
-1.5 0.514561 0.528695 0.533459 0.538074 0.550925
-1 0.514561 0.519473 0.524237 0.537516 0.550367
0 0.505061 0.519194 0.532901 0.543586 0.553926
1 0.514561 0.525934 0.536963 0.568130 0.598294
1.5 0.511717 0.523090 0.555260 0.586428 0.600260
2 0.511717 0.544891 0.577062 0.591354 0.605186
2.5 0.534178 0.567352 0.582104 0.596396 0.606395
3 0.534178 0.549390 0.564143 0.574474 0.584472
3.5 0.515673 0.530885 0.541549 0.551880 0.562713
4 0.515673 0.526669 0.537333 0.548526 0.559359
4.5 0.511329 0.522325 0.533879 0.545072 0.570209
5 0.511329 0.523243 0.534796 0.560770 0.585907
5.5 0.512274 0.524188 0.550998 0.576972 0.585510
6 0.512274 0.539921 0.566731 0.575553 0.584092
6.5 0.528483 0.556129 0.565236 0.574058 0.579160
7 0.528483 0.537874 0.546980 0.552252 0.557354
7.5 0.509675 0.519066 0.524507 0.529779 0.547691
8 0.509675 0.515286 0.520728 0.539235 0.557147
8.5 0.505781 0.511392 0.530496 0.549004 0.558275
9 0.505781 0.525481 0.544584 0.554164 0.563435
9.5 0.520296 0.539995 0.549884 0.559463 0.567367
10 0.520296 0.530492 0.540380 0.548547 0.556450
10.5 0.510505 0.520702 0.529131 0.537297 0.545861
11 0.510505 0.519197 0.527626 0.536475 0.545038
11.5 0.508955 0.517647 0.526781 0.535629 0.554092
12 0.508955 0.518373 0.527507 0.546584 0.565046
12.5 0.509703 0.519121 0.538813 0.557890 0.563857
十三0.509703 0.530009 0.549700 0.555866 0.561833
13.5 0.520920 0.541225 0.547589 0.553755 0.559806
14 0.520920 0.527482 0.533846 0.540098 0.546149
14.5 0.506761 0.513324 0.519777 0.526029 0.541775
15 0.506761 0.513416 0.519869 0.536138 0.551884
15.5 0.506856 0.513510 0.530304 0.546573 0.559533
16 0.506856 0.524173 0.540967 0.554358 0.567317
16.5 0.517841 0.535159 0.548981 0.562372 0.569334
17 0.517841 0.532095 0.545917 0.553110 0.560072
17.5 0.514684 0.528938 0.536363 0.543557 0.557525
18 0.514684 0.522341 0.529767 0.544200 0.558168
18.5 0.507889 0.515546 0.530443 0.544877 0.563338
19 0.507889 0.523251 0.538149 0.557225 0.575686
19.5 0.515827 0.531190 0.550880 0.569956
20 0.515827 0.536132 0.555822
20.5 0.520918 0.541223
21 0.520918

上表的實際用途是購買額外的半點。如果您下注 120（而不是通常的 110），大多數賭場都會給您額外的半點。下表顯示了五個最佳讓分盤口的獲勝機率和預期價值，這些讓分盤口可以用來購買半點。假設讓分盤口公平，下注 110 的賭場優勢為 4.76%，那麼僅從 3、7、10 和 14 的讓分盤口購買額外的半點就值得了。

購買半點讓分盤的價值

傳播機率。
贏		預期的
價值
3 53.42% -2.07%
7 52.85% -3.11%
14 52.09% -4.50%
10 52.03% -4.61%
17 51.78% -5.06%

預告片

讓分盤基本上是一種騙人的賭注。在恰當的情況下，加上豐厚的賠率，它們或許是個不錯的選擇。然而，對於隨意選擇讓分盤的休閒博彩玩家來說，它們的價值就很低了。

對於那些不了解的人來說，讓分盤就像過關投註一樣，只不過在大學橄欖球比賽中，玩家每場比賽可以獲得6到7.5個額外積分。這些額外積分的贏利遠低於過關投注。

為了開始我的分析，下表顯示了以 6 到 7.5 個額外分數贏得每場比賽的機率，並根據玩家是否在挑逗邊、低於、高於或做「Wong」挑逗，我將立即解釋。

每輪預選賽獲勝機率

積分邊在下面超過黃
6 65.39% 65.39% 63.31% 71.57%
6.5 66.49% 66.47% 64.34%
7 67.72% 67.58% 65.47%
7.5 68.87% 68.63% 66.67%

在進一步闡述之前，我先解釋一下什麼是「黃氏讓分盤」（Wong Teaser）。據我所知，這個想法最早出現在史丹佛‧黃（Stanford Wong）的著作《精明體育博彩》（Sharp Sports Betting）中。黃氏正確地指出，3和7是NFL中最常見的兩個勝率差距。他建議對這兩個關鍵數字進行讓分盤。它只適用於+1.5到+2.5以及-7.5到-8.5的公平讓分。例如，將+2的弱隊讓分盤口調至+8，允許球隊以射門得分或達陣得分輸掉比賽，但仍可覆蓋讓分盤。

雖然這可以透過讓分盤中的任意點數來實現，但只有六點讓分盤才值得，因為降低的賠付可以獲得超過六點的點數。

話雖如此，下表顯示了根據我所見過的不同選擇和支付次數以及所預測的投注類型得出的六分盤口預期價值。

6分盤口預期價值

腿支付邊在下面超過黃
2 5到6 -21.60% -21.62% -26.52% -6.08%
2 1 -14.48% -14.49% -19.84% 2.45%
3 1.4 -32.89% -32.91% -39.10% -12.00%
3 1.6 -27.30% -27.32% -34.03% -4.67%
3 1.7 -24.50% -24.52% -31.49% -1.01%
3 1.8 -21.71% -21.73% -28.95% 2.66%
4 2.5 -36.00% -36.03% -43.77% -8.15%
4 2.8 -30.52% -30.54% -38.95% -0.28%
4 3 -26.86% -26.89% -35.74% 4.97%
5 4 -40.22% -40.24% -49.15% -6.09%
5 4.5 -34.24% -34.27% -44.06% 3.30%
6 6 -45.27% -45.30% -54.93% -5.90%
6 6.5 -41.36% -41.39% -51.71% 0.82%
6 7 -37.45% -37.49% -48.49% 7.54%
7 9 -48.87% -48.91% -59.24% -3.78%
7 10 -43.76% -43.80% -55.16% 5.84%
8 10 -63.22% -63.25% -71.61% -24.25%
8 12 -56.54% -56.57% -66.45% -10.48%

如您所見，上表中有很多非常負的預期值。少數正的預期值只出現在黃牌讓分盤中，而且只有在賠率最高的情況下才有，這種情況很難找到。在Coast/Boyd賭場，可以找到賠率最高、預期值最高的黃牌讓分盤。

我還應該指出，我的數據中只有1780場比賽的點差在黃牌過關盤區間內。我給的黃牌過關盤獲勝機率為71.57%，這個數字應該算比較粗略，標準差為1.70%。其他研究讓我相信，黃牌過關盤在任何一局中獲勝的機率更接近68.9%。

下表顯示了6.5分讓分盤的預期價值。如前所述，黃牌讓分盤僅在買入6分時有效，因此6.5、7和7.5分的表格中省略了該列。

6.5分盤口的預期價值

腿支付邊在下面超過
2 10至13 -21.80% -21.83% -26.77%
2 5到6 -18.96% -19.00% -24.12%
2 10到11 -15.61% -15.65% -20.98%
3 1.2 -35.35% -35.39% -41.42%
3 1.5 -26.53% -26.58% -33.43%
3 1.6 -23.59% -23.64% -30.76%
4 2 -41.38% -41.43% -48.60%
4 2.5 -31.61% -31.67% -40.04%
4 3 -21.84% -21.91% -31.47%
5 3.5 -41.54% -41.61% -50.40%
5 4 -35.05% -35.12% -44.89%
5 4.5 -28.55% -28.63% -39.38%
6 5 -48.18% -48.25% -57.45%
6 5.5 -43.86% -43.93% -53.91%
6 6 -39.54% -39.62% -50.36%
6 7 -30.91% -31.00% -43.27%
7 8 -48.32% -48.40% -58.94%
7 9 -42.58% -42.67% -54.38%
8 9 -61.82% -61.89% -70.65%
8 10 -58.01% -58.08% -67.71%
8 12 -50.37% -50.46% -61.84%

下表顯示了 7 分制大學橄欖球預告片的預期值。

7分盤口預期價值

腿支付邊在下面超過
2 5到7 -21.39% -21.70% -26.53%
2 10至13 -18.87% -19.19% -24.17%
2 5到6 -15.93% -16.27% -21.42%
3 1 -37.89% -38.27% -43.88%
3 1.2 -31.68% -32.09% -38.27%
3 1.4 -25.47% -25.92% -32.66%
3 1.5 -22.37% -22.83% -29.85%
4 1.8 -41.12% -41.59% -48.57%
4 2 -36.92% -37.42% -44.89%
4 2.5 -26.40% -26.99% -35.71%
5 3 -43.04% -43.61% -51.90%
5 3.5 -35.92% -36.56% -45.88%
6 4 -51.79% -52.36% -60.63%
6 5 -42.14% -42.84% -52.76%
6 6 -32.50% -33.31% -44.89%
7 6.5 -51.03% -51.71% -61.34%
7 7 -47.76% -48.49% -58.77%
7 8 -41.23% -42.05% -53.61%
8 9 -55.78% -56.49% -66.26%
8 12 -42.52% -43.43% -56.13%

下表顯示了 7.5 分大學橄欖球預告片的預期值。

7.5分盤口的預期價值

腿支付邊在下面超過
2 5到7 -18.68% -19.26% -23.81%
2 2到3 -20.94% -21.50% -25.93%
3 1.2 -28.13% -28.89% -34.81%
3 1.5 -18.33% -19.19% -25.93%
4 1.8 -37.00% -37.89% -44.69%
4 2 -32.50% -33.45% -40.74%
5 3 -38.01% -39.10% -47.33%
5 3.5 -30.27% -31.49% -40.74%
6 4 -46.64% -47.76% -56.10%
6 5 -35.96% -37.31% -47.33%
7 7 -41.19% -42.63% -53.18%
8 10 -44.31% -45.87% -57.08%

總結一下大學橄欖球預告片的話題，除非你每場比賽都有 6 分預告片，並且能夠獲得自由的 Coast/Boyd 賭場賠率，否則請遠離它們。

數據

本分析所使用的數據來自1996年至2013年的12,231場大學橄欖球比賽。我之所以從1996年開始分析，是因為當時引入了加時賽規則，以消除平局。當時的數據相當粗糙，所以我不得不剔除很多包含不合理信息的比賽，比如讓分差為-100、大小分盤為負、每節得分總和低於全場總分，或者比賽以平局結束。我確信其中肯定有一些不準確的數據，但我相信絕大多數數據都還不錯。

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Players rated Bovada Casino 3.9 out of 5 Stars
0
Sign Up bonus - Sticky

75% 高達
$750

New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+. Bonus is valid with a Bitcoin, USDT, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin SV Deposit. You may use your bonus on any sport, wager type and odds.

Sign Up Bonus - Sports - Cryptocurrency

Bonus Code

BTCSWB750
min WR: 5xB&D
Wager the Bonus & Deposit amount 5 times on Sports Betting運動押注 to Cashout.
Bitcoin Cash Ethereum Litecoin
Deposit must be made with Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin, Tether
Bitcoin Tether
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BetOnline Casino
3.3 / 5.0
Players rated BetOnline Casino 3.3 out of 5 Stars
0
Cashable
Sign Up bonus - Cashable

50% 高達
$250

+100 旋轉

New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Play Responsibly.  Minimum deposit $50. PLUS 100 Free Spins will be issued as 10 Free Spins per day for 10 Days, starting within 24 hours of your qualifying deposit. Welcome offer is limited to players located in North America.

Sign Up Bonus - North America - Sports

Bonus Code

FREE250
No Info
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撰寫者: Michael Shackleford