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大學橄欖球博彩
在這一頁
介紹
本頁旨在解釋大學橄欖球投注的各種方式。我提供了一些常用的統計數據和建議。
平均值
下表可能對體育書籍沒有任何幫助,但我認為這是比較大學橄欖球和NFL 的一種有趣方式。足球平均值
| 統計 | 大學 | NFL | 
|---|---|---|
| 總得分 | 52.80 | 42.15 | 
| 大於/小於總數 | 48.31 | 41.32 | 
| 點差 | -5.40 | -2.45 | 
| 主場勝率 | 5.68 | 2.66 | 
| 首攻 | 39.49 | 37.64 | 
| 衝刺嘗試 | 77.15 | 55.21 | 
| 衝刺碼數 | 313.12 | 229.52 | 
| 傳球嘗試 | 62.34 | 66.44 | 
| 傳球碼數 | 438.52 | 430.63 | 
| 攔截 | 2.06 | 2.02 | 
| 開球回攻碼數 | 166.14 | 161.90 | 
| 處罰 | 12.81 | 12.43 | 
| 罰球碼數 | 109.36 | 102.77 | 
| 失球 | 3.44 | 2.94 | 
| 失球 | 1.74 | 1.41 | 
| 棄踢 | 10.35 | 9.66 | 
| 棄踢碼數 | 419.42 | 415.04 | 
| 薩克斯 | 4.13 | 4.54 | 
| 麻袋場 | 27.66 | 29.18 | 
| 第一節得分 | 11.95 | 8.33 | 
| 第二節得分 | 15.39 | 12.94 | 
| 第三節得分 | 12.07 | 8.92 | 
| 第四節得分 | 13.30 | 11.75 | 
勝利的差距
下表顯示了每次勝利的次數和頻率。勝利的差距
| 利潤 勝利 | 遊戲 | 百分比 | 
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 413 | 3.35% | 
| 2 | 327 | 2.65% | 
| 3 | 1187 | 9.63% | 
| 4 | 475 | 3.85% | 
| 5 | 324 | 2.63% | 
| 6 | 362 | 2.94% | 
| 7 | 901 | 7.31% | 
| 8 | 294 | 2.38% | 
| 9 | 152 | 1.23% | 
| 10 | 535 | 4.34% | 
| 11 | 289 | 2.34% | 
| 12 | 221 | 1.79% | 
| 十三 | 225 | 1.82% | 
| 14 | 533 | 4.32% | 
| 15 | 139 | 1.13% | 
| 16 | 169 | 1.37% | 
| 17 | 488 | 3.96% | 
| 18 | 308 | 2.50% | 
| 19 | 179 | 1.45% | 
| 20 | 267 | 2.17% | 
| 21 | 452 | 3.67% | 
| 22 | 161 | 1.31% | 
| 23 | 174 | 1.41% | 
| 24 | 352 | 2.85% | 
| 二十五 | 226 | 1.83% | 
| 二十六 | 135 | 1.09% | 
| 二十七 | 213 | 1.73% | 
| 二十八 | 337 | 2.73% | 
| 二十九 | 99 | 0.80% | 
| 三十 | 130 | 1.05% | 
| 31 | 270 | 2.19% | 
| 三十二 | 160 | 1.30% | 
| 33 | 73 | 0.59% | 
| 三十四 | 167 | 1.35% | 
| 三十五 | 219 | 1.78% | 
| 三十六 | 63 | 0.51% | 
| 三十七 | 93 | 0.75% | 
| 三十八 | 173 | 1.40% | 
| 三十九 | 91 | 0.74% | 
| 40 | 三十七 | 0.30% | 
| 41 | 94 | 0.76% | 
| 四十二 | 128 | 1.04% | 
| 43 | 二十八 | 0.23% | 
| 四十四 | 49 | 0.40% | 
| 45 | 96 | 0.78% | 
| 46 | 41 | 0.33% | 
| 四十七 | 二十五 | 0.20% | 
| 四十八 | 63 | 0.51% | 
| 49 | 77 | 0.62% | 
| 50 | 20 | 0.16% | 
| 51 | 23 | 0.19% | 
| 52 | 46 | 0.37% | 
| 53 | 三十 | 0.24% | 
| 54 | 7 | 0.06% | 
| 55 | 二十六 | 0.21% | 
| 56 | 三十五 | 0.28% | 
| 57 | 6 | 0.05% | 
| 58 | 19 | 0.15% | 
| 59 | 21 | 0.17% | 
| 60 | 8 | 0.06% | 
| 61 | 1 | 0.01% | 
| 62 | 14 | 0.11% | 
| 63 | 23 | 0.19% | 
| 64歲以上 | 三十八 | 0.31% | 
| 全部的 | 12331 | 100.00% | 
下表按順序顯示了前十名的勝利幅度。
十大勝負分差
| 秩 | 利潤 勝利 | 遊戲 | 百分比 | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 1,187 | 9.63% | 
| 2 | 7 | 901 | 7.31% | 
| 3 | 10 | 535 | 4.34% | 
| 4 | 14 | 533 | 4.32% | 
| 5 | 17 | 488 | 3.96% | 
| 6 | 4 | 475 | 3.85% | 
| 7 | 21 | 452 | 3.67% | 
| 8 | 1 | 413 | 3.35% | 
| 9 | 6 | 362 | 2.94% | 
| 10 | 24 | 352 | 2.85% | 
| 全部的 | 5,698 | 46.21% | 
點差
投注任何足球比賽的主要方式是讓分盤。下表顯示了勝、負、平手的機率,以及根據主隊/客隊、弱隊/強隊投注的所有組合得出的預期價值。表假設投注者投注11勝10負,這幾乎總是如此。
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                    點差投注
| 賭注 | 機率獲勝 | 機率損失 | 機率平局 | 預期的 價值 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 所有弱勢群體 | 0.496298 | 0.487591 | 0.016112 | -0.036411 | 
| 所有收藏 | 0.487591 | 0.496298 | 0.016112 | -0.053033 | 
| 所有家 | 0.498338 | 0.485605 | 0.016057 | -0.032571 | 
| 全部離開 | 0.485605 | 0.498338 | 0.016057 | -0.056878 | 
| 主場弱勢方 | 0.505600 | 0.474971 | 0.019429 | -0.015335 | 
| 家鄉最愛 | 0.494567 | 0.491155 | 0.014278 | -0.041549 | 
| 客場劣勢 | 0.491155 | 0.494567 | 0.014278 | -0.048062 | 
| 客場熱門 | 0.474971 | 0.505600 | 0.019429 | -0.073808 | 
大小磁碟
下表顯示了投注高於/低於線的可能結果和預期價值。大小投注
| 賭注 | 機率獲勝 | 機率損失 | 機率平局 | 預期的 價值 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 在下面 | 0.503232 | 0.483320 | 0.013447 | -0.025836 | 
| 超過 | 0.483320 | 0.503232 | 0.013447 | -0.063850 | 
                 俄亥俄州 推薦的線上體育書籍
                俄亥俄州 推薦的線上體育書籍
            
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            輸贏盤
下表顯示了我數據中弱勢方在每個讓分點上的比賽場次,以及弱勢方獲勝的次數。它還顯示了我在消除所有波動後估計的獲勝機率。右欄顯示了基於估算獲勝機率的公平線。弱隊獲勝的機率(以點差計算)
| 傳播 | 勝利 | 遊戲 | 實際的 可能性 | 估計的 可能性 | 公平的 輸贏盤 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 四十二 | 84 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 | 
| 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 48.5% | 106 | 
| 1 | 125 | 268 | 46.6% | 47.1% | 112 | 
| 1.5 | 130 | 246 | 52.8% | 45.6% | 119 | 
| 2 | 124 | 264 | 47.0% | 44.2% | 126 | 
| 2.5 | 224 | 482 | 46.5% | 42.7% | 134 | 
| 3 | 318 | 700 | 45.4% | 41.3% | 142 | 
| 3.5 | 182 | 507 | 35.9% | 39.9% | 151 | 
| 4 | 134 | 326 | 41.1% | 38.5% | 160 | 
| 4.5 | 97 | 279 | 34.8% | 37.1% | 169 | 
| 5 | 89 | 227 | 39.2% | 35.8% | 179 | 
| 5.5 | 102 | 285 | 35.8% | 34.5% | 190 | 
| 6 | 109 | 330 | 33.0% | 33.2% | 202 | 
| 6.5 | 130 | 418 | 31.1% | 31.9% | 214 | 
| 7 | 172 | 551 | 31.2% | 30.6% | 227 | 
| 7.5 | 100 | 365 | 27.4% | 29.4% | 240 | 
| 8 | 60 | 227 | 26.4% | 28.2% | 255 | 
| 8.5 | 59 | 202 | 29.2% | 27.0% | 270 | 
| 9 | 55 | 199 | 27.6% | 25.9% | 286 | 
| 9.5 | 57 | 242 | 23.6% | 24.8% | 304 | 
| 10 | 121 | 401 | 30.2% | 23.7% | 322 | 
| 10.5 | 56 | 250 | 22.4% | 22.7% | 341 | 
| 11 | 四十八 | 196 | 24.5% | 21.7% | 362 | 
| 11.5 | 三十 | 141 | 21.3% | 20.7% | 383 | 
| 12 | 三十六 | 175 | 20.6% | 19.7% | 407 | 
| 12.5 | 三十八 | 162 | 23.5% | 18.8% | 431 | 
| 十三 | 三十八 | 222 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 457 | 
| 13.5 | 59 | 245 | 24.1% | 17.1% | 484 | 
| 14 | 四十八 | 331 | 14.5% | 16.3% | 514 | 
| 14.5 | 二十九 | 184 | 15.8% | 15.5% | 544 | 
| 15 | 19 | 139 | 13.7% | 14.8% | 577 | 
| 15.5 | 20 | 110 | 18.2% | 14.0% | 612 | 
| 16 | 二十五 | 134 | 18.7% | 13.4% | 649 | 
| 16.5 | 16 | 162 | 9.9% | 12.7% | 688 | 
| 17 | 二十六 | 246 | 10.6% | 12.1% | 729 | 
| 17.5 | 18 | 144 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 773 | 
| 18 | 7 | 110 | 6.4% | 10.9% | 820 | 
| 18.5 | 7 | 82 | 8.5% | 10.3% | 869 | 
| 19 | 11 | 109 | 10.1% | 9.8% | 921 | 
| 19.5 | 9 | 87 | 10.3% | 9.3% | 977 | 
| 20 | 11 | 152 | 7.2% | 8.8% | 1,036 | 
| 20.5 | 12 | 113 | 10.6% | 8.3% | 1,098 | 
| 21 | 6 | 153 | 3.9% | 7.9% | 1,164 | 
| 21.5 | 4 | 104 | 3.8% | 7.5% | 1,234 | 
| 22 | 7 | 107 | 6.5% | 7.1% | 1,308 | 
| 22.5 | 5 | 68 | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1,387 | 
| 23 | 7 | 93 | 7.5% | 6.4% | 1,470 | 
| 23.5 | 5 | 98 | 5.1% | 6.0% | 1,559 | 
| 24 | 4 | 126 | 3.2% | 5.7% | 1,653 | 
| 24.5 | 4 | 85 | 4.7% | 5.4% | 1,752 | 
| 二十五 | 7 | 66 | 10.6% | 5.1% | 1,858 | 
| 25.5 | 1 | 四十八 | 2.1% | 4.8% | 1,969 | 
| 二十六 | 2 | 68 | 2.9% | 4.6% | 2,088 | 
| 26.5 | 6 | 61 | 9.8% | 4.3% | 2,214 | 
| 二十七 | 1 | 79 | 1.3% | 4.1% | 2,347 | 
| 27.5 | 6 | 73 | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2,488 | 
| 二十八 | 6 | 108 | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2,638 | 
| 28.5 | 5 | 57 | 8.8% | 3.5% | 2,796 | 
| 二十九 | 2 | 52 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2,965 | 
| 29.5 | 1 | 45 | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3,143 | 
| 三十 | 1 | 50 | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3,332 | 
| 30.5 | 3 | 四十七 | 6.4% | 2.8% | 3,533 | 
| 31 | 2 | 54 | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3,745 | 
要計算熱門球隊獲勝的機率,只需取弱隊在同一場比賽中獲勝機率與100%之間的差值即可。例如,一支7分的弱隊預計獲勝機率為30.6%。因此,一支7分的熱門球隊獲勝機率為100%-30.6% = 69.4%。
需要注意的是,估算機率並未考慮關鍵數字。例如,2.5分和3.5分的弱勢球隊之間的獲勝機率差異,很可能高於估算機率欄中建議的42.7% - 39.9% = 2.8%。
我還根據主場或客場弱勢球隊來觀察這條曲線,但並未發現統計上有足夠大的差異,需要進行特殊處理。
下圖說明了實際和估計的獲勝機率。

購買額外積分
下表顯示了根據公平讓分盤口,在不計算平局的情況下,額外獲得0.5到2.5分的獲勝機率。例如,你認為某隊的公平讓分盤口為+3,但有人給你+3.5,那麼你的獲勝機率就是53.42%。弱隊獲勝的機率(以點差計算)
| 傳播 | 0.5 分 | 1.0 分 | 1.5 分 | 2.0 分 | 2.5 分 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -21 | 0.520918 | 0.536281 | 0.551179 | 0.558373 | 0.565335 | 
| -20.5 | 0.515827 | 0.531190 | 0.538615 | 0.545809 | 0.558769 | 
| -20 | 0.515827 | 0.523484 | 0.530910 | 0.544301 | 0.557260 | 
| -19.5 | 0.507889 | 0.515546 | 0.529368 | 0.542759 | 0.558504 | 
| -19 | 0.507889 | 0.522142 | 0.535964 | 0.552234 | 0.567979 | 
| -18.5 | 0.514684 | 0.528938 | 0.545731 | 0.562001 | 0.568052 | 
| -18 | 0.514684 | 0.532002 | 0.548795 | 0.555047 | 0.561098 | 
| -17.5 | 0.517841 | 0.535159 | 0.541612 | 0.547864 | 0.553831 | 
| -17 | 0.517841 | 0.524496 | 0.530949 | 0.537114 | 0.543082 | 
| -16.5 | 0.506856 | 0.513510 | 0.519874 | 0.526040 | 0.544503 | 
| -16 | 0.506856 | 0.513418 | 0.519782 | 0.538860 | 0.557322 | 
| -15.5 | 0.506761 | 0.513324 | 0.533015 | 0.552092 | 0.560656 | 
| -15 | 0.506761 | 0.527067 | 0.546758 | 0.555606 | 0.564170 | 
| -14.5 | 0.520920 | 0.541225 | 0.550359 | 0.559207 | 0.567110 | 
| -14 | 0.520920 | 0.530338 | 0.539471 | 0.547638 | 0.555541 | 
| -13.5 | 0.509703 | 0.519121 | 0.527551 | 0.535717 | 0.544988 | 
| -13 | 0.509703 | 0.518395 | 0.526824 | 0.536404 | 0.545675 | 
| -12.5 | 0.508955 | 0.517647 | 0.527535 | 0.537115 | 0.555027 | 
| -12 | 0.508955 | 0.519152 | 0.529040 | 0.547548 | 0.565460 | 
| -11.5 | 0.510505 | 0.520702 | 0.539805 | 0.558313 | 0.563415 | 
| -11 | 0.510505 | 0.530205 | 0.549309 | 0.554580 | 0.559682 | 
| -10.5 | 0.520296 | 0.539995 | 0.545437 | 0.550708 | 0.559247 | 
| -10 | 0.520296 | 0.525907 | 0.531348 | 0.540171 | 0.548710 | 
| -9.5 | 0.505781 | 0.511392 | 0.520499 | 0.529322 | 0.554459 | 
| -9 | 0.505781 | 0.515172 | 0.524279 | 0.550252 | 0.575390 | 
| -8.5 | 0.509675 | 0.519066 | 0.545876 | 0.571850 | 0.582682 | 
| -8 | 0.509675 | 0.537321 | 0.564131 | 0.575324 | 0.586157 | 
| -7.5 | 0.528483 | 0.556129 | 0.567682 | 0.578875 | 0.588874 | 
| -7 | 0.528483 | 0.540396 | 0.551950 | 0.562281 | 0.572279 | 
| -6.5 | 0.512274 | 0.524188 | 0.534852 | 0.545183 | 0.559015 | 
| -6 | 0.512274 | 0.523271 | 0.533934 | 0.548227 | 0.562059 | 
| -5.5 | 0.511329 | 0.522325 | 0.537078 | 0.551370 | 0.581534 | 
| -5 | 0.511329 | 0.526542 | 0.541294 | 0.572461 | 0.602625 | 
| -4.5 | 0.515673 | 0.530885 | 0.563056 | 0.594223 | 0.604564 | 
| -4 | 0.515673 | 0.548847 | 0.581017 | 0.591702 | 0.602043 | 
| -3.5 | 0.534178 | 0.567352 | 0.578381 | 0.589065 | 0.601917 | 
| -3 | 0.534178 | 0.545551 | 0.556579 | 0.569858 | 0.582709 | 
| -2.5 | 0.511717 | 0.523090 | 0.536796 | 0.550075 | 0.554541 | 
| -2 | 0.511717 | 0.525851 | 0.539557 | 0.544172 | 0.548638 | 
| -1.5 | 0.514561 | 0.528695 | 0.533459 | 0.538074 | 0.550925 | 
| -1 | 0.514561 | 0.519473 | 0.524237 | 0.537516 | 0.550367 | 
| 0 | 0.505061 | 0.519194 | 0.532901 | 0.543586 | 0.553926 | 
| 1 | 0.514561 | 0.525934 | 0.536963 | 0.568130 | 0.598294 | 
| 1.5 | 0.511717 | 0.523090 | 0.555260 | 0.586428 | 0.600260 | 
| 2 | 0.511717 | 0.544891 | 0.577062 | 0.591354 | 0.605186 | 
| 2.5 | 0.534178 | 0.567352 | 0.582104 | 0.596396 | 0.606395 | 
| 3 | 0.534178 | 0.549390 | 0.564143 | 0.574474 | 0.584472 | 
| 3.5 | 0.515673 | 0.530885 | 0.541549 | 0.551880 | 0.562713 | 
| 4 | 0.515673 | 0.526669 | 0.537333 | 0.548526 | 0.559359 | 
| 4.5 | 0.511329 | 0.522325 | 0.533879 | 0.545072 | 0.570209 | 
| 5 | 0.511329 | 0.523243 | 0.534796 | 0.560770 | 0.585907 | 
| 5.5 | 0.512274 | 0.524188 | 0.550998 | 0.576972 | 0.585510 | 
| 6 | 0.512274 | 0.539921 | 0.566731 | 0.575553 | 0.584092 | 
| 6.5 | 0.528483 | 0.556129 | 0.565236 | 0.574058 | 0.579160 | 
| 7 | 0.528483 | 0.537874 | 0.546980 | 0.552252 | 0.557354 | 
| 7.5 | 0.509675 | 0.519066 | 0.524507 | 0.529779 | 0.547691 | 
| 8 | 0.509675 | 0.515286 | 0.520728 | 0.539235 | 0.557147 | 
| 8.5 | 0.505781 | 0.511392 | 0.530496 | 0.549004 | 0.558275 | 
| 9 | 0.505781 | 0.525481 | 0.544584 | 0.554164 | 0.563435 | 
| 9.5 | 0.520296 | 0.539995 | 0.549884 | 0.559463 | 0.567367 | 
| 10 | 0.520296 | 0.530492 | 0.540380 | 0.548547 | 0.556450 | 
| 10.5 | 0.510505 | 0.520702 | 0.529131 | 0.537297 | 0.545861 | 
| 11 | 0.510505 | 0.519197 | 0.527626 | 0.536475 | 0.545038 | 
| 11.5 | 0.508955 | 0.517647 | 0.526781 | 0.535629 | 0.554092 | 
| 12 | 0.508955 | 0.518373 | 0.527507 | 0.546584 | 0.565046 | 
| 12.5 | 0.509703 | 0.519121 | 0.538813 | 0.557890 | 0.563857 | 
| 十三 | 0.509703 | 0.530009 | 0.549700 | 0.555866 | 0.561833 | 
| 13.5 | 0.520920 | 0.541225 | 0.547589 | 0.553755 | 0.559806 | 
| 14 | 0.520920 | 0.527482 | 0.533846 | 0.540098 | 0.546149 | 
| 14.5 | 0.506761 | 0.513324 | 0.519777 | 0.526029 | 0.541775 | 
| 15 | 0.506761 | 0.513416 | 0.519869 | 0.536138 | 0.551884 | 
| 15.5 | 0.506856 | 0.513510 | 0.530304 | 0.546573 | 0.559533 | 
| 16 | 0.506856 | 0.524173 | 0.540967 | 0.554358 | 0.567317 | 
| 16.5 | 0.517841 | 0.535159 | 0.548981 | 0.562372 | 0.569334 | 
| 17 | 0.517841 | 0.532095 | 0.545917 | 0.553110 | 0.560072 | 
| 17.5 | 0.514684 | 0.528938 | 0.536363 | 0.543557 | 0.557525 | 
| 18 | 0.514684 | 0.522341 | 0.529767 | 0.544200 | 0.558168 | 
| 18.5 | 0.507889 | 0.515546 | 0.530443 | 0.544877 | 0.563338 | 
| 19 | 0.507889 | 0.523251 | 0.538149 | 0.557225 | 0.575686 | 
| 19.5 | 0.515827 | 0.531190 | 0.550880 | 0.569956 | |
| 20 | 0.515827 | 0.536132 | 0.555822 | ||
| 20.5 | 0.520918 | 0.541223 | |||
| 21 | 0.520918 | 
上表的實際用途是購買額外的半點。如果您下注 120(而不是通常的 110),大多數賭場都會給您額外的半點。下表顯示了五個最佳讓分盤口的獲勝機率和預期價值,這些讓分盤口可以用來購買半點。假設讓分盤口公平,下注 110 的賭場優勢為 4.76%,那麼僅從 3、7、10 和 14 的讓分盤口購買額外的半點就值得了。
購買半點讓分盤的價值
| 傳播 | 機率。 贏 | 預期的 價值 | 
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 53.42% | -2.07% | 
| 7 | 52.85% | -3.11% | 
| 14 | 52.09% | -4.50% | 
| 10 | 52.03% | -4.61% | 
| 17 | 51.78% | -5.06% | 
預告片
讓分盤基本上是一種騙人的賭注。在恰當的情況下,加上豐厚的賠率,它們或許是個不錯的選擇。然而,對於隨意選擇讓分盤的休閒博彩玩家來說,它們的價值就很低了。對於那些不了解的人來說,讓分盤就像過關投註一樣,只不過在大學橄欖球比賽中,玩家每場比賽可以獲得6到7.5個額外積分。這些額外積分的贏利遠低於過關投注。
為了開始我的分析,下表顯示了以 6 到 7.5 個額外分數贏得每場比賽的機率,並根據玩家是否在挑逗邊、低於、高於或做「Wong」挑逗,我將立即解釋。
每輪預選賽獲勝機率
| 積分 | 邊 | 在下面 | 超過 | 黃 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 65.39% | 65.39% | 63.31% | 71.57% | 
| 6.5 | 66.49% | 66.47% | 64.34% | |
| 7 | 67.72% | 67.58% | 65.47% | |
| 7.5 | 68.87% | 68.63% | 66.67% | 
在進一步闡述之前,我先解釋一下什麼是「黃氏讓分盤」(Wong Teaser)。據我所知,這個想法最早出現在史丹佛‧黃(Stanford Wong)的著作《精明體育博彩》(Sharp Sports Betting)中。黃氏正確地指出,3和7是NFL中最常見的兩個勝率差距。他建議對這兩個關鍵數字進行讓分盤。它只適用於+1.5到+2.5以及-7.5到-8.5的公平讓分。例如,將+2的弱隊讓分盤口調至+8,允許球隊以射門得分或達陣得分輸掉比賽,但仍可覆蓋讓分盤。
雖然這可以透過讓分盤中的任意點數來實現,但只有六點讓分盤才值得,因為降低的賠付可以獲得超過六點的點數。
話雖如此,下表顯示了根據我所見過的不同選擇和支付次數以及所預測的投注類型得出的六分盤口預期價值。
6分盤口預期價值
| 腿 | 支付 | 邊 | 在下面 | 超過 | 黃 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5到6 | -21.60% | -21.62% | -26.52% | -6.08% | 
| 2 | 1 | -14.48% | -14.49% | -19.84% | 2.45% | 
| 3 | 1.4 | -32.89% | -32.91% | -39.10% | -12.00% | 
| 3 | 1.6 | -27.30% | -27.32% | -34.03% | -4.67% | 
| 3 | 1.7 | -24.50% | -24.52% | -31.49% | -1.01% | 
| 3 | 1.8 | -21.71% | -21.73% | -28.95% | 2.66% | 
| 4 | 2.5 | -36.00% | -36.03% | -43.77% | -8.15% | 
| 4 | 2.8 | -30.52% | -30.54% | -38.95% | -0.28% | 
| 4 | 3 | -26.86% | -26.89% | -35.74% | 4.97% | 
| 5 | 4 | -40.22% | -40.24% | -49.15% | -6.09% | 
| 5 | 4.5 | -34.24% | -34.27% | -44.06% | 3.30% | 
| 6 | 6 | -45.27% | -45.30% | -54.93% | -5.90% | 
| 6 | 6.5 | -41.36% | -41.39% | -51.71% | 0.82% | 
| 6 | 7 | -37.45% | -37.49% | -48.49% | 7.54% | 
| 7 | 9 | -48.87% | -48.91% | -59.24% | -3.78% | 
| 7 | 10 | -43.76% | -43.80% | -55.16% | 5.84% | 
| 8 | 10 | -63.22% | -63.25% | -71.61% | -24.25% | 
| 8 | 12 | -56.54% | -56.57% | -66.45% | -10.48% | 
如您所見,上表中有很多非常負的預期值。少數正的預期值只出現在黃牌讓分盤中,而且只有在賠率最高的情況下才有,這種情況很難找到。在Coast/Boyd賭場,可以找到賠率最高、預期值最高的黃牌讓分盤。
我還應該指出,我的數據中只有1780場比賽的點差在黃牌過關盤區間內。我給的黃牌過關盤獲勝機率為71.57%,這個數字應該算比較粗略,標準差為1.70%。其他研究讓我相信,黃牌過關盤在任何一局中獲勝的機率更接近68.9%。
下表顯示了6.5分讓分盤的預期價值。如前所述,黃牌讓分盤僅在買入6分時有效,因此6.5、7和7.5分的表格中省略了該列。
6.5分盤口的預期價值
| 腿 | 支付 | 邊 | 在下面 | 超過 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10至13 | -21.80% | -21.83% | -26.77% | 
| 2 | 5到6 | -18.96% | -19.00% | -24.12% | 
| 2 | 10到11 | -15.61% | -15.65% | -20.98% | 
| 3 | 1.2 | -35.35% | -35.39% | -41.42% | 
| 3 | 1.5 | -26.53% | -26.58% | -33.43% | 
| 3 | 1.6 | -23.59% | -23.64% | -30.76% | 
| 4 | 2 | -41.38% | -41.43% | -48.60% | 
| 4 | 2.5 | -31.61% | -31.67% | -40.04% | 
| 4 | 3 | -21.84% | -21.91% | -31.47% | 
| 5 | 3.5 | -41.54% | -41.61% | -50.40% | 
| 5 | 4 | -35.05% | -35.12% | -44.89% | 
| 5 | 4.5 | -28.55% | -28.63% | -39.38% | 
| 6 | 5 | -48.18% | -48.25% | -57.45% | 
| 6 | 5.5 | -43.86% | -43.93% | -53.91% | 
| 6 | 6 | -39.54% | -39.62% | -50.36% | 
| 6 | 7 | -30.91% | -31.00% | -43.27% | 
| 7 | 8 | -48.32% | -48.40% | -58.94% | 
| 7 | 9 | -42.58% | -42.67% | -54.38% | 
| 8 | 9 | -61.82% | -61.89% | -70.65% | 
| 8 | 10 | -58.01% | -58.08% | -67.71% | 
| 8 | 12 | -50.37% | -50.46% | -61.84% | 
下表顯示了 7 分制大學橄欖球預告片的預期值。
7分盤口預期價值
| 腿 | 支付 | 邊 | 在下面 | 超過 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5到7 | -21.39% | -21.70% | -26.53% | 
| 2 | 10至13 | -18.87% | -19.19% | -24.17% | 
| 2 | 5到6 | -15.93% | -16.27% | -21.42% | 
| 3 | 1 | -37.89% | -38.27% | -43.88% | 
| 3 | 1.2 | -31.68% | -32.09% | -38.27% | 
| 3 | 1.4 | -25.47% | -25.92% | -32.66% | 
| 3 | 1.5 | -22.37% | -22.83% | -29.85% | 
| 4 | 1.8 | -41.12% | -41.59% | -48.57% | 
| 4 | 2 | -36.92% | -37.42% | -44.89% | 
| 4 | 2.5 | -26.40% | -26.99% | -35.71% | 
| 5 | 3 | -43.04% | -43.61% | -51.90% | 
| 5 | 3.5 | -35.92% | -36.56% | -45.88% | 
| 6 | 4 | -51.79% | -52.36% | -60.63% | 
| 6 | 5 | -42.14% | -42.84% | -52.76% | 
| 6 | 6 | -32.50% | -33.31% | -44.89% | 
| 7 | 6.5 | -51.03% | -51.71% | -61.34% | 
| 7 | 7 | -47.76% | -48.49% | -58.77% | 
| 7 | 8 | -41.23% | -42.05% | -53.61% | 
| 8 | 9 | -55.78% | -56.49% | -66.26% | 
| 8 | 12 | -42.52% | -43.43% | -56.13% | 
下表顯示了 7.5 分大學橄欖球預告片的預期值。
7.5分盤口的預期價值
| 腿 | 支付 | 邊 | 在下面 | 超過 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5到7 | -18.68% | -19.26% | -23.81% | 
| 2 | 2到3 | -20.94% | -21.50% | -25.93% | 
| 3 | 1.2 | -28.13% | -28.89% | -34.81% | 
| 3 | 1.5 | -18.33% | -19.19% | -25.93% | 
| 4 | 1.8 | -37.00% | -37.89% | -44.69% | 
| 4 | 2 | -32.50% | -33.45% | -40.74% | 
| 5 | 3 | -38.01% | -39.10% | -47.33% | 
| 5 | 3.5 | -30.27% | -31.49% | -40.74% | 
| 6 | 4 | -46.64% | -47.76% | -56.10% | 
| 6 | 5 | -35.96% | -37.31% | -47.33% | 
| 7 | 7 | -41.19% | -42.63% | -53.18% | 
| 8 | 10 | -44.31% | -45.87% | -57.08% | 
總結一下大學橄欖球預告片的話題,除非你每場比賽都有 6 分預告片,並且能夠獲得自由的 Coast/Boyd 賭場賠率,否則請遠離它們。
數據
本分析所使用的數據來自1996年至2013年的12,231場大學橄欖球比賽。我之所以從1996年開始分析,是因為當時引入了加時賽規則,以消除平局。當時的數據相當粗糙,所以我不得不剔除很多包含不合理信息的比賽,比如讓分差為-100、大小分盤為負、每節得分總和低於全場總分,或者比賽以平局結束。我確信其中肯定有一些不準確的數據,但我相信絕大多數數據都還不錯。
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撰寫者: Michael Shackleford
 
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                                     Nebraska Cornhuskers
                                                                                Nebraska Cornhuskers
                                     USC Trojans
                                                                                USC Trojans
                                     Troy Trojans
                                                                                Troy Trojans
                                     San Jose State Spartans
                                                                                San Jose State Spartans
                                     Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
                                                                                Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
                                     Ohio Bobcats
                                                                                Ohio Bobcats
                                     Miami (OH) RedHawks
                                                                                Miami (OH) RedHawks
                                     Tulane Green Wave
                                                                                Tulane Green Wave
                                     Alabama Crimson Tide
                                                                                Alabama Crimson Tide
                                     LSU Tigers
                                                                                LSU Tigers
                                     Iowa Hawkeyes
                                                                                Iowa Hawkeyes
                                     Oregon Ducks
                                                                                Oregon Ducks
                                     BYU Cougars
                                                                                BYU Cougars
                                     UCLA Bruins
                                                                                UCLA Bruins
                                     Missouri Tigers
                                                                                Missouri Tigers
                                     Texas A&M Aggies
                                                                                Texas A&M Aggies
                                     TCU Horned Frogs
                                                                                TCU Horned Frogs
                                     
                                             
                                             
                                             
                                            




 
                                                 
                                                 
                                                 
                                     
                                    