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NHL投注

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簡介

NHL投注

本頁面旨在幫助業餘冰球愛好者更好地參與比賽。我仔細分析了主要的投注方式——輸贏盤、大小盤和冰球盤——的價值，以確定最佳投注方式。此外，我還列出了一些冰球統計數據，供您參考。

數據和方法

以下數據來自NHL自2017/18賽季以來四個賽季的每場比賽。這四個賽季的總比賽場次為4875場。值得注意的是，由於新冠疫情， 2020/2021賽季縮短至1904場。

數據是從Big Ball Data逐個賽季購買的。前三個賽季的賠率非常嚴格，我推測這些賠率來自 Pinnacle Sports。第四個賽季的賠率則更為常規，為 20 美分。在評估以下預期收益時，我計算了所有數據的總收益，然後使用適當的加權因子，使收益等於 20 美分賠率下的 4.54% 預期收益，而絕大多數體育博彩公司都提供 20 美分賠率的冰球投注。

接下來的三節展示了我對投注曲棍球的三種主要方式的分析——賠率線、大小分和盤口線。

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Featured Insight 馬爾默紅鷹隊擁有堅固的防守，使對手很難得分。 他們的比賽通常得分較低，因此押注總分以下可能是一個明智的選擇。 Frölunda HC 憑藉他們的侵略性進攻，可能會挑戰馬爾默的防守。 考慮投注 Frölunda 以首先得分或總團隊進球數。 對 Frölunda 的最佳射手進行球員道具投注可以提供價值。 監控傷病，因為它們可能會顯著影響比賽動態。
Thu Oct 9th 01pm Leksands IF Linköping HC
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Featured Insight Leksands IF 和 Linköping HC 即將迎來一場激動人心的對決。Leksands IF 擁有主場優勢，狀態略佳。然而，Linköping HC 在客場比賽中展現出韌性。Leksands 的關鍵球員表現出色，但 Linköping 的防守戰術可能是比賽的關鍵。考慮下注一個接近的比分，Leksands IF 可能略佔上風。
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nhl_championship_winner_logo.png Ice Hockey 全國冰球錦標賽冠軍
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shl_logo.png Ice Hockey 曲棍球瑞典甲級聯賽
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Featured Insight AIK和Mora IK在一場關鍵的冰球比賽中交鋒。主場作戰的AIK最近表現出韌性，但防守不穩。Mora IK以強大的進攻而聞名，這場比賽有望出現多進球。投注於總進球數超過5.5個可能有吸引力。關注AIK的頭號得分手可能產生影響。兩隊都希望改善排名，因此預計比賽能量充沛，可能進入加時賽。
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Featured Insight Almtuna IS對陣IK Oskarshamn是一場激動人心的對決。Almtuna IS在主場表現穩定，使他們在自己的場地上非常有威懾力。同時，IK Oskarshamn以強大的進攻陣容聞名，能夠突破防線。需要關注的關鍵球員包括Almtuna的得分王和Oskarshamn的明星門將。儘管Almtuna有主場優勢，但Oskarshamn近期的狀態顯示可能會爆冷。預計會是一場激烈的比賽，戰略深度將發揮至關重要的作用。
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Featured Insight Östersunds IK將迎戰BIK Karlskoga，一場激動人心的比賽，雙方都將努力爭取勝利。Östersunds在主場表現更強，但在穩定防守方面存在困難。另一方面，BIK Karlskoga擁有強大的攻擊力，但在反擊時容易受損。關鍵球員和傷病可能會影響比賽結果。可以考慮基於進球趨勢的大小盤投注。觀察近期比賽表現可以提供更好的投注優勢。
Fri Oct 10th 01pm Kalmar HC IF Björklöven
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Featured Insight 卡爾瑪 HC 和 IF Björklöven 對戰，Björklöven 由於近期表現而佔據更強位置。儘管卡爾瑪 HC 被視為弱者，但他們在主場表現出韌性。Björklöven 的進攻強大，然而卡爾瑪的防守戰術可能打亂他們的節奏。投注者應考慮 Björklöven 為熱門，但也要注意卡爾瑪的主場優勢。
Fri Oct 10th 01pm IF Troja-Ljungby Västerås IK
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Featured Insight Troja-Ljungby將面對Västerås IK，這場比賽預計會很精彩。Troja-Ljungby顯示出強大的防守，而Västerås則擁有堅實的進攻陣容。關鍵球員和過往對戰紀錄可能影響比賽結果。考慮近期表現和主場優勢。請理性投注。
Fri Oct 10th 01pm Modo Hockey Södertälje SK
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Featured Insight 在Modo Hockey與Södertälje SK的對決中，Modo Hockey由於當前的良好狀態和主場優勢略占上風。注意Modo的頂級前鋒可能對比賽產生重大影響。然而，Södertälje SK近期強勁的防守表現表明他們不會輕易被擊敗。考慮押注一場緊張的比賽，總進球可能少於5.5。
Fri Oct 10th 01pm Vimmerby HC Nybro Vikings IF
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Featured Insight Vimmerby HC將在一場備受期待的比賽中對陣Nybro Vikings IF。Vimmerby在主場戰績強勁，而Nybro在客場表現穩定。特殊球隊可能是決定性因素，兩隊均擁有強大的優勢球表現。關注Vimmerby的防守嘗試阻止Nybro的頂級進攻線。隨著兩隊狀態良好，預計會是一場激烈的比賽。押注一場小勝或甚至加時賽可能明智。

輸贏盤

輸贏盤投注是簡單的投注，押注誰會贏。下表顯示了投注所有冷門球隊、熱門球隊和熱門球隊（兩隊獲勝機率各佔一半）的預期回報。如預期，基於其他運動項目的研究，冷門球隊的投注價值更高，其賭場優勢比熱門球隊低2.73%。

NHL 的輸贏盤投注

投注預期的
返回		房子
邊緣
失敗者96.82% 3.18%
最喜歡的94.09% 5.91%
挑選95.45% 4.55%
全部的95.45% 4.55%

在過去四個賽季的4,875場比賽中，主隊贏了2,627場（53.9%），客隊贏了2,248場（46.1%）。下表詳細分析了雙贏盤投注的勝負情況。

NHL 的輸贏盤投注

投注預期的
返回		房子
邊緣
路94.82% 5.18%
家96.09% 3.91%
全部的95.45% 4.55%

大小磁碟

下表列出了投注低於總分的投注情況。不出所料，投注低於總分的投注確實有回報，其賭場優勢比投注高於總分的投注高出 1.67%。這並不令人意外，因為在我研究過的每項運動項目中，低於總分的投注都比高於總分的投注表現好得多。

NHL 中的大小投注

投注預期的
返回		房子
邊緣
超過94.62% 5.38%
在下面96.29% 3.71%
全部的95.45% 4.55%

冰上曲棍球線

冰球盤口 (Puck Line) 就像棒球中的跑壘盤口 (Run Line)。它是一個讓分盤，始終為 1.5。熱門球隊總是丟 1.5 球，而弱勢球隊則能進 1.5 球。下表顯示，投注弱勢球隊的賭場優勢比投注熱門球隊低 1.61%。

NHL 冰球線投注

投注預期的
返回		房子
邊緣
弱隊 +1.5 96.26% 3.74%
最喜歡-1.5 94.65% 5.35%
全部的95.45% 4.55%

值得一提的是，我花了很多時間研究冰球盤口投注，試圖弄清楚如果輸贏盤投注公平的話，是否還有任何價值。長話短說，我發現體育博彩公司在冰球盤口的設定上做得非常到位。

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有趣的事實

下表顯示了常規賽和季後賽每節和加時賽的平均得分。

我認為應該單獨考慮這兩個因素的原因是，常規賽中存在著進入加時賽的動機。具體來說，如果比賽在三個回合後分出勝負，則勝方獲得兩分，負方不得分。然而，如果比賽在加時賽中分出勝負，則勝方獲得兩分，負方獲得一分。加時賽總是採用突然死亡制（先得分的隊伍獲勝）。數據顯示，例行賽中加時賽的機率為22.57%，而季後賽的機率則降至20.89%。

各時段平均進球數

時期常規的
季節		隨著時間的推移合併
1 1.7260 1.5300 1.7106
2 2.0100 1.9530 2.0055
3 2.0151 1.9008 2.0062
隨著時間的推移0.2257 0.2089 0.2244
全部的5.9768 5.5927 5.9467

下表顯示了單一球隊每場比賽中所有可行進球數的機率。

每隊各時段進球數

目標第一階段第 2 階段第 3 節
0 42.02% 36.04% 37.08%
1 37.01% 37.84% 35.67%
2 15.59% 17.94% 19.22%
3 4.39% 6.50% 6.22%
4 0.81% 1.41% 1.56%
5 0.17% 0.24% 0.23%
6 0.01% 0.03% 0.03%
7 0.00% 0.01% 0.00%
全部的100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
平均的0.8553 1.0028 1.0031

下表顯示了兩隊每場比賽總進球數的機率。

每隊各時段進球數

目標第一階段第 2 階段第 3 節
0 17.68% 12.80% 12.21%
1 30.75% 26.38% 26.87%
2 26.77% 28.35% 28.33%
3 15.77% 18.65% 19.43%
4 6.58% 9.39% 8.88%
5 1.78% 3.16% 2.81%
6 0.51% 0.82% 1.15%
7 0.06% 0.37% 0.29%
8 0.06% 0.08% 0.04%
9 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
全部的100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
平均的1.7106 2.0055 2.0062

下圖顯示了從 2017 年開始的四個賽季中主隊對客隊的進球數。

主隊進球數超過客隊進球數

家
目標		路
目標
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9全部的
0 0 40 46 88 61 20 9 0 0 0 264
1 51 0 214 129 178 70 23 10 4 1 680
2 49 227 0 334 151 130 41 18 2 0 952
3 96 168 336 0 278 96 56 18 7 0 1055
4 68 180 191 274 0 128 24 20 2 0 887
5三十二97 223 89 106 0三十四6 4 0 591
6 11四十四56 93三十八三十五0 5 0 1 283
7 6二十五20 31 20 7 6 0 0 0 115
8 2 2 10 6 7 6 2 1 0 0三十六
9 1 1 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 10
10 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
全部的316 786 1098 1048 841 492 195 78 19 2 4875

下面顯示了從 2017 年開始的四個賽季中獲勝球隊對失敗球隊的進球數。

獲勝球隊與失敗球隊的平均得分

獲勝隊伍失敗的隊伍
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9全部的
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91
2 95 441 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 536
3 184 297 670 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1151
4 129 358 342 552 0 0 0 0 0 0 1381
5 52 167 353 185 234 0 0 0 0 0 991
6 20 67 97 149 62 69 0 0 0 0 464
7 6三十五三十八49 40十三11 0 0 0 192
8 2 6 12十三9 10 2 1 0 0 55
9 1 2 2 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 12
10 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
全部的580 1375 1514 952 347 92 14 1 0 0 4875

下表顯示了從 2017 年開始的四個賽季中每次勝利幅度的計數和機率。

勝利的差距

利潤數數可能性
1 2,069 42.44%
2 996 20.43%
3 1,095 22.46%
4 451 9.25%
5 172 3.53%
6 71 1.46%
7 14 0.29%
8 4 0.08%
9 3 0.06%
全部的4,875 100.00%

下表顯示了客隊和主隊每場比賽的各種統計數據以及兩隊的總和。

其他統計數據－客場 vs. 主場

描述公路隊主隊合併
班次384.95 379.46 764.41
射門次數30.56 31.87 62.43
射門未進11.36 12.16 23.52
射門被蓋帽14.34 13.90 28.24
助攻4.68 5.16 9.84
積分* 7.47 8.22 15.70
處罰3.58 3.34 6.92
罰球時間8.47 7.92 16.40
熱門歌曲22.37 23.29 45.66
總結6.32 7.97 14.29
贈品7.95 10.56 18.52
爭球獲勝28.42 29.93 58.35
爭球失敗29.93 28.42 58.34

下表顯示了常規賽和季後賽每場比賽的各種統計數據以及兩者的總和。

其他統計數據—例行賽 vs. 季後賽

描述常規的
季節		季後賽合併
班次759.22 825.24 764.41
射門次數62.40 62.79 62.43
射門未進23.48 23.95 23.52
射門被蓋帽27.92 31.91 28.24
助攻9.88 9.34 9.84
積分15.76 14.93 15.70
處罰6.85 7.77 6.92
罰球時間16.16 19.18 16.40
熱門歌曲43.74 68.15 45.66
總結14.28 14.39 14.29
贈品18.32 20.89 18.52
爭球獲勝58.29 59.09 58.35

筆記：
*：得分與進球不同。助攻進球的球員可能會獲得積分。 NHL 從 2017 年開始的四個賽季，得分與進球的比率為 2.64。

下表顯示了各種進球方式的進球數與射門數之比。

進球與射門比率

類別比率
離開9.29%
家9.75%
例行賽9.58%
季後賽8.91%
全部的9.52%

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