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NFL 中的「取悅者」投注

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本頁的分析是基於1994年至2012年賽季的4450場NFL比賽。我從1994年開始分析，因為那一年引入了兩分轉換規則。除了樣本量差異之外，我還必須對點差卡的產生方式做出假設。讀者應該假設本頁任何關於獲勝機率和預期回報的統計數據都存在一定的誤差。歸根結底，體育運動最終是由人而不是統計數據進行的，因此，任何基於過去結果對未來結果的預測，都應持保留態度。

介紹

對於那些了解「讓分盤」投注的人來說，讓分盤（也稱為反向讓分盤）的運作方式相同，只不過投注者獲得的分數為負。顯然，這意味著每局比賽的勝率較低，因此投注者獲得的賠付表更高。

對於那些不知道什麼是「讓分盤」的人來說，過度投注、讓分盤或取悅盤投注是指投注者在一系列比賽中至少做出兩個選擇。玩家必須贏得所有選擇才能贏得投注。選擇的選項越多，獲勝機率越低，但如果所有選擇都贏，則獲勝機率越高。平手時規則會有所不同。過關投注是指投注者與讓分盤對抗，沒有額外積分。過關投注是指投注者獲得額外積分，但獲勝機率較低。取悅盤投注是指投注者放棄積分，但獲勝機率較高。

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Featured Insight 拉斯維加斯突襲者隊與田納西泰坦隊之間的對決預計將是一場激烈的比賽。突襲者展現出進攻火力，而泰坦依靠穩固的防守和地面進攻。注意失誤，它們可能決定比賽結果。關鍵球員有突襲者的 Derek Carr 和泰坦的 Derrick Henry。博彩賠率可能會略微傾向於主場優勢的田納西。
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Featured Insight 綠灣包裝工隊將迎戰辛辛那提猛虎隊，這是一場引人入勝的比賽。包裝工隊由阿倫·羅傑斯領導的強大進攻是一支令人敬畏的球隊。然而，猛虎隊顯示出了韌性和新興人才。關鍵因素包括包裝工隊的進攻線對猛虎隊防守的表現以及猛虎隊控制羅傑斯的能力。投注者可能會認為包裝工隊更被看好，但猛虎隊有能力製造驚喜。
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Featured Insight 新奧爾良聖徒隊對新英格蘭愛國者隊的比賽承諾將會高度緊張。聖徒隊由技術嫺熟的四分衛帶領的強大進攻，可以對愛國者隊堅韌的防守造成挑戰。同時，愛國者隊不斷發展的進攻力圖利用防守漏洞。投注洞察建議關注失誤和特殊團隊的表現，因為這些可能會改變比賽的勢頭。新奧爾良略占優勢，但預計比賽會非常激烈。
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取悅性投注顯然不太受歡迎，事實證明，只有三個拉斯維加斯體育博彩公司提供取悅性投注卡，如下所示：

  • 威廉希爾——7分
  • Stratosphere——7.5分
  • 米高梅——9分好評

我從來沒有聽說過可以取悅別人的賭注。

以下是我對每一個的分析。

7分滿意

7分卡僅在威廉希爾體育博彩公司和阿利安特體育博彩公司有售。所有讓分都以1/2結尾，因此不會出現平手。下表顯示了3至8個投注選項的勝率（以「一賠一」為基礎）、勝率以及預期回報（假設投注者為隨機）。每局勝率均為28.65%。

下表基於威廉希爾賠率表。右欄顯示賭場優勢範圍為39%至73%。

7 點 William Hill Pleaser 卡 — 隨機選擇器

挑選支付機率獲勝預期值
3二十六0.023508 -0.388796
4 80 0.006734 -0.461266
5 240 0.001929 -0.537016
6 700 0.000553 -0.613166
7 2000 0.000158 -0.683388
8 6000 0.000045 -0.727906

下表基於 Aliante 賠率表。右欄顯示賭場優勢範圍為 39% 至 73%。

7 點 Aliante Pleaser 卡 — 隨機選擇

挑選支付機率獲勝預期值
3 23 0.023508 -0.459319
4 70 0.006734 -0.528608
5 210 0.001929 -0.594889
6 600 0.000553 -0.668428
7 1700 0.000158 -0.730880
8 5000 0.000045 -0.773255

聰明的賭徒可以透過在輸掉少於7點的牌局中，以及/或避免輸掉關鍵的勝率來降低這些莊家優勢。然而，隨機抽牌的莊家優勢本來就很高，即使我使出渾身解數，我也不會碰這張討喜的牌。

7.5分

7.5分的取悅卡僅在Stratosphere系列體育博彩公司有售。所有讓分都以1/2結尾，因此不會出現平手。下表顯示了3至6個選項的勝率（以「一比一」為基礎）、勝率以及預期回報（假設隨機選擇）。每局勝率均為27.38%。右欄顯示賭場優勢介於64%至81%之間。

7.5 分平流層取悅卡 — 隨機選擇

挑選支付機率獲勝預期值
3 17.5 0.020534 -0.640647
4 50 0.005623 -0.718844
5 170 0.001540 -0.738230
6 450 0.000422 -0.810251

就像7分取悅者一樣，我們可以透過仔細比較牌面上的讓分和牌面上的讓分，獲得額外的半分來削弱這些巨大的莊家優勢。投注者可以透過盡可能長時間地等待，利用賠率線的變動。即使賠率線沒有變動，如果讓分一開始就以半分結束，那麼發牌者就必須將兩邊的讓分分別移動7分和8分，才能使取悅者讓分最終以半分結束。投注者只需放棄7分，而不是7.5分，就能提高賠率。然而，面對高達64%的莊家優勢，這一切都注定是一場敗仗。

9分好禮

9分卡僅在米高梅體育博彩公司提供。所有讓分都以1/2結尾，因此不會出現平手。下表顯示了3至8個選項的勝率（以「一比一」為基礎）、勝率以及預期回報（假設隨機選擇）。每局勝率均為24.17%。右欄顯示賭場優勢介於75%至94%之間。

9 點 MGM Pleaser 卡 — 隨機選擇

挑選支付機率獲勝預期值
3 17.5 0.014123 -0.752850
4 55 0.003414 -0.812244
5 180 0.000825 -0.851471
6 500 0.000199 -0.900272
7 1500 0.000048 -0.927682
8 5000 0.000012 -0.941732

94%的莊家優勢？你他媽開玩笑吧！對於一個隨機抽獎的人來說，米高梅八連注彩票的合理賠率應該是85,810，而他們只投注了5,000注。相比之下，彩票的價值簡直是天價。

有一瞬間，我以為這是我見過的最糟糕的賭場賭注。然而，這份榮譽仍屬於哈拉斯拉斯維加斯的基諾賭場，他們「選10刺激彩券」的賭場優勢高達96.63%。

概括

讓我把話說清楚。取悅型投注是賠率很低的！如果你一定要下注，威廉希爾體育博彩公司提供的「選三取悅型投注」是最好的選擇，它的賭場優勢高達39%。正如之前提到的，你可以盡可能晚地投注，從而盡可能少地放棄比盤口線更低的分數，從而降低賭場優勢。即使你能把賭場優勢減半，這仍然是一個糟糕的選擇。

忘掉那些討人喜歡的牌吧。普通的聯贏牌能讓你贏錢的幾率更高。

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撰寫者: Michael Shackleford