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美國職棒大聯盟投注

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美國職棒大聯盟投注

介紹

本頁面將盡力為棒球休閒投注者提供各種投注建議。我完全不懂棒球讓分盤技巧，所以我所能做的就是引導您選擇最佳投注類型。棒球投注主要有三種方式。

  • 輸贏盤：押注哪一隊會贏。
  • 總數：投注總分是高於或低於指定數字，通常在 7 到 12 之間。
  • 跑壘線：類似足球或籃球比賽中的讓分盤投注。不過，在棒球比賽中，實力較強的球隊總是以1.5的賠率被看好。如果輸贏盤顯示兩隊都不被看好，那麼任何一支球隊都有可能成為熱門球隊。

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數據來源

本分析基於美國職棒大聯盟 (MLB) 2016 和 2017 賽季的比賽數據。由於數據不完整，我不得不刪除兩場比賽。本頁面所依據的比賽總數為 4,929 場。

有趣的事實

下表顯示了平均跑壘次數、安打次數、錯誤次數。

2016-2017 年 MLB 平均值

物品離開家總計1
運行4.47 4.64 9.10
熱門歌曲8.71 8.64 17.34
錯誤0.58 0.58 1.16
全部的13.76 13.87 27.61

筆記

1. 由於四捨五入，總數可能與各部分總和不一致。

輸贏盤投注

在棒球輸贏盤投注，或任何體育博彩中，兩隊賠率之間的基點（或“美分”）是多少？例如，10美分的賠率組合將是+120/-130或+105/+105。以下是假設每支球隊獲勝的機率接近50%，以賠率組合中的美分計算的理論賭場優勢。

  • 10美分：2.38%
  • 15美分：3.49%
  • 20美分：4.55%

截至撰寫本文時（2018 年 9 月 20 日），以下是哪些運動博彩集團提供哪些棒球輸贏盤投注。

  • 10 美分線：Westgate、William Hill、South Point、Stations、CG Technology、Golden Nugget、Jerry's Nugget、Boyd
  • 15分賠率線：Stratosphere、Caesars、Wynn
  • 20美分線：米高梅/幻影酒店、金銀島

主場或客場球隊

我展示了客隊輸贏盤投注的表現略優於主隊。以下是兩者的預期回報：

  • 客隊：98.30%
  • 主隊：97.99%

我認為這個 0.3% 的差異在統計上並不顯著。

熱門或冷門

以下是弱勢球隊和強勢球隊相對於 10 美分賠率的預期回報：

  • 弱勢方：98.49%
  • 收藏率：97.79%

毫不奇怪，弱勢一方表現較好。這似乎在美國每項運動中都是如此。

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大小投注

下表顯示了總投注超過、低於以及正好位於高於/低於盤口的次數。回報欄顯示了假設盤口為20美分時的賭場優勢。請注意，低於盤口的賭場優勢要低2.25%。

MLB 大小盤投注

結果數位可能性房子
邊緣
超過2315 46.97% 5.45%
在下面2373 48.14% 3.20%
推241 4.89%
全部的4929 100.00%

跑壘線投注

根據 20 美分線組，我展示了以下預期回報：

  • 弱勢方 +1.5：96.34%
  • 最喜歡-1.5：96.90%

我必須說，我很驚訝看到熱門球隊在跑壘線上的表現優於弱隊。 NHL的冰球線上情況並非如此。差距相當小，只有0.64%，所以我不相信熱門球隊會繼續做得更好。

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撰寫者: Michael Shackleford